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Weekly Commentary

2025’s Unexpected Strength, 2026’s Unanswered Questions

As the year draws to a close, where do we find ourselves? Most likely, not where many of us thought we would be. Economic growth of 2.7-3%, inflation of 2.7-3%, a rising stock market, and falling interest rates… out-of-context (even in-context), this stands as a remarkably positive positioning for the start of 2026. The trade uncertainties that have been so damaging to so many businesses have largely been managed, if not overcome, and sales growth has been sufficient to buy the necessary time to complete further adjustments to a substantially altered operating environment. All would be very well and merry if it were not for gnawing concerns about labor: the short-term availability of employees to fill job openings and the longer-term possibility for entrenched underemployment caused by technological change. And whereas in years past competitive anxiety has focused on global threats, this year the mood seems decidedly inward-looking — will my business be smart enough, quick enough, bold enough to meet the new technological demands for success? In sum, despite the unlikely economic successes of 2025, there are more questions than answers as the new year looms.   

Data to Watch 

  1. US Nonfarm Payrolls for October and November, released Tuesday, December 16 
  1. US Retail Sales for November, released Wednesday, December 17 
  1. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, released Thursday, December 18 

Suggested Reading 

  1. Historic Shift Underway in China’s Economy as Investment Slump Deepens 
  1. Trump wants the U.S. shipbuilding industry to be great again. Here’s what it will take, and what’s at stake 
  1. Small Business Optimism Index 

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