Good morning,
December employment data released this morning came in slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, while other labor indicators were mixed—helping explain the bond market’s collective shrug. In the betting markets, the odds of a January rate cut have fallen to zero, and speculation that December’s cut may have been Chair Powell’s last is gaining traction.
For the week so far, the S&P 500 Index is up a modest 0.93%. Despite what feels like a clearer path toward increased risk appetite, investors have hesitated over the past few days, trying to assess the implications of developments in Venezuela and, now, Greenland. “Limbo” may be the word of the week—the labor market appears to be in it, and there’s a reasonable argument that equities are as well.
As is my practice, below is a reprint of the monthly letter accompanying the client performance reports going out today.
Be well,
Mike
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