Investors are always inundated with forecasts in January – where markets might go, what interest rates might do, or which risks are most likely to dominate the year ahead. While those conversations can be interesting, they’re not always the most productive place to focus; 2025, for instance, upended many confident predictions about both the economy and politics, and 2026 may be no different.
From a planning perspective, this is shaping up to be a year where decisions matter more than predictions.
Looking ahead, there is no shortage of uncertainty. Markets continue to adjust to a higher interest-rate environment, economic outcomes remain uneven, and policy discussions (particularly around taxes) are increasingly focused on what comes next in 2026. None of that lends itself to confident forecasting, but it does lend itself to thoughtful planning.
Periods like this tend to reward flexibility. Over time, we’ve found that the most resilient plans are not those built around a single expected outcome, but those designed to perform reasonably well across a range of outcomes. In that sense, we like to think of flexibility almost as an asset class of its own. It doesn’t always show up in performance tables, but it shows up in better decisions, less regret, and more control.
Flexibility shows up in several ways. It shows up in tax planning, where having assets across taxable, tax-deferred, and Roth accounts provides more options as rules and rates evolve. It shows up in retirement planning, where coordinating income sources thoughtfully can matter more than hitting a precise return target. And it shows up in liquidity, where access to flexible capital can make it easier to respond to opportunities or disruptions without forcing uncomfortable trade-offs.
At the same time, we are keenly aware that complexity can undermine flexibility. Overly complex portfolios or plans can make adjustments expensive – financially, tax-wise, or emotionally. When complexity does support flexibility, it’s because it creates optionality rather than obligation. Examples include tax diversification across account types, liquidity tiers spanning short-, medium-, and long-term capital, or estate planning structures that allow discretionary distributions.
This distinction becomes particularly relevant as we move into 2026. Under current law, several tax provisions are scheduled to change, and while future legislation may alter the details, the broader takeaway is that the cost of inflexibility is likely to increase. That doesn’t mean anyone needs to rush into decisions, but it does suggest that waiting for perfect clarity may come at the expense of good optionality.
Importantly, viewing this as a planning year does not require pessimism about markets or the economy. Long-term investment outcomes will continue to be driven by earnings, interest rates, inflation, and behavior, not by any single forecast or headline. What planning does is help ensure that those market outcomes, whatever they turn out to be, are working for you rather than against you.
As the year begins, our focus remains on aligning portfolios, tax strategies, and long-term plans to preserve flexibility and support your broader goals. During periods of change, we will encourage clients to focus on simplifying where possible and preserving decision-making room. Flexible plans can adapt. The objective isn’t to predict the future, but to be prepared for a wider range of possibilities.
If you’d like to revisit how these themes apply to your own situation – whether that’s taxes, retirement timing, or overall portfolio strategy- we look forward to that conversation.