Important Economic Numbers

Money from Tax Cuts

Key Themes of 2026

2026 Tech Bubble?
Valuations are elevated but well below dot-com extremes and current leverage is manageable.

Employment & Labor Force

US Corporate Profit Margins
Profits as a percentage of corporate revenue, 2000–3Q 2025

Markets are Broadening – Will it Continue?

US Dollar Index: Jan 2023 – Dec 2025
The U.S. dollar weakened against all other G10 currencies in 2025, posting its worst performance since 2017.

Rising 10 Year Yields
Long-end yields are more susceptible to fiscal debt sustainability concerns, inflation expectations, Fed independence , growth and geopolitical uncertainty. Rising 10-year rates also impact mortgage debt pricing.

Rising 30 Year Yields
Long-end yields are more susceptible to fiscal debt sustainability concerns, inflation expectations, Fed independence , growth and geopolitical uncertainty.

2025 Stock Market Declines: Gold and Bitcoin Behaved Differently

Crude Oil & Electricity Costs

Oil Production

Portfolio Implementation: Balancing Risk & Opportunity
Resilient global growth, strong balance sheets, and policy support (monetary, fiscal, regulatory) support continued participation in risk assets. However, tight valuations, fiscal uncertainty, tariff volatility and AI-related concentration risks underscore the need for balance and diversification.

