Good morning,
A positive January for the S&P 500 (+1.4%) has historically boded well for the remainder of the year. In midterm years in particular, January strength has generally carried forward—though often with notable intra-year drawdowns (1966, 1998, and 2018 come to mind). Big picture, this bull market is mature and valuations are elevated, but there are still no clear signals of an imminent end.
Futures are lower this morning amid renewed AI-related nervousness. Oracle is back in the market seeking to raise $50 billion to fund data-center expansion—necessary, given its negative cash flow profile. It’s the kind of headline that inevitably stirs memories of the late-1990s dot-com era and can feel a bit nerve-wracking.
This week brings a heavy slate of earnings (including GOOGL, AMZN, AMD, and PLTR), the monthly employment report, and—of course—the prospect of a government shutdown by week’s end. Never pleasant.
Perhaps a slightly rocky start to February.
Be well,
Mike
