Good morning,
Friday’s surprisingly weak employment report—and the stagflation implications that would leave policymakers in a policy straitjacket—produced the worst trading day of the week for equities (S&P 500 -1.33%). With the index finishing the week down -2.01%, there’s a fair argument that a possibly rogue jobs number had a greater market impact than the outbreak of war.
After the initial shock, economists began pointing to weather distortions in payroll counts and average hourly earnings as likely contributors. If true, the report may prove less ominous than the headlines suggested.
Investors are now left attempting to discount the near-term trajectory of the war—an exercise that borders on impossible. For the moment, most major asset prices appear tethered to one variable above all others: oil.
Beyond what the headlines are already telling us, there isn’t much additional insight to offer. That said, after reviewing commodities, inflation trends, and a broad collection of market indicators from Ned Davis Research over the weekend, the conclusion remains that—for now—market signals still suggest the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Be well,
Mike
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