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Weekly Commentary

Week of March 8, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

War always creates economic turmoil. It changes prices, adds to national debt and heightens uncertainty. As such, war may impact economic decision-making even in markets not apparently directly affected by combat. One example of such effect may be provided by the US housing market, where rumors of a recovery have, in the last 12 months, too often proved to be just that: rumors. At a recent economic conference, Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, observed that her constituency — largely households with annual incomes between $70,000 and $100,000 — rushed into the home-buying market when 30-year mortgage rates fell below 6% in late February. Unfortunately, war has put upward pressure on the 10 yr Treasury note that strongly influences mortgage rates, pushing that same 30-year mortgage back above 6% and threatening further increases. While Federal Reserve decisions regarding the target Fed Funds rate are highly important (especially to the Executive Branch of the US government), it is interest rates set by the global bond market that will have much to say about consumer and business spending and investing in the next few months.

Data to Watch 

  • US Existing Home Sales for February, released Tuesday, March 10 
  • US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, released Wednesday, March 11 
  • University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, preliminary for March, released Friday, March 13 

Suggested Readings 

  1. The Month Healthcare Jobs Stopped Propping Up the Labor Market 
  2. Middle-income homebuyers have $30,000 more buying power than a year ago, research finds. It’s still not enough 
  3. Small Business Employment Index Shows Positive Start to Year 

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