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Weekly Commentary

Week of March 15, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

Data availability is critical to financial markets, economists and businesses and data can come from many organizations, including but not-exclusively agencies of the Federal Government. A number of well-established industries have created surveys and other forms of data collection with long track records; some examples are residential construction National Association of Home Builders Index), autos (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence) and small business (the National Federation of Independent Business Survey).  Nevertheless, when the economic questions are complicated, impacting many parts of the very big, dynamic US economy simultaneously, looking to the broad data sets provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has always been considered crucial to a fulsome understanding of the economic environment. With the recent release of the Consumer Price Index for February and the second estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, inquiring minds once again want to know if the available data is also accurate data. The BEA appears to have changed some data sources, while claiming to have maintained a consistent methodology and the BLS remains under scrutiny for its procedures for dealing with delayed or incomplete responses to its various labor surveys. Both the February CPI and the 4th Quarter GDP growth numbers came in well off their estimates, for reasons not completely understood. The upshot is a very real, unsettling question:  is “close” the same as good enough, especially at times like these. 

Data to Watch 

  • National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Index for March, released Monday, March 16 
  • US Producer Price Index for February, released Wednesday, March 18 
  • Federal Reserve/FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released Wednesday, March 18 

Suggested Reading 

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