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Weekly Commentary

Week of April 12, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

There is simply no way to spin this: the “affordability” metrics are ugly and likely to get uglier in the next two months. Inflation in the United States is running above 3% at the moment, a development that may indeed be “transitory” but nevertheless remains dispiriting and painful. In Europe, the magnitude of the upward push on prices from the Strait of Hormuz chokehold is anyone’s guess; inflation numbers due out this week for March will only provide a vague sense of the size of the problem and no sense of how long it will last. Central banks everywhere are in something of a quandary since this is not inflationary pressure that monetary policy can easily address. And there is merit in giving some thought to the unexpected, unanticipated economic relationship. For example, in California (8th largest economy in the world by some measures) there is no sales tax on groceries, and the gasoline tax is restricted to funding city streets and highways. If California consumers cut back on expenditures that generate sales tax revenue for state and local government in order to fund more expensive gasoline and grocery purchases . . . local governments and state-funded agencies may suddenly find themselves scrambling for funds.   

Data to Watch

  • National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index for March, released Tuesday, April 14 
  • US Producer Price Index for March, released Tuesday, April 14 
  • Euro Area Consumer Price Index for March, released Thursday, April 16 

Suggested Reading 

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