Is Social Security Running Out?
Social Security’s trustees moved up their projection again this year: the trust fund that pays retirement benefits is now expected to run dry in late 2032, a full year earlier than last year’s estimate. On a combined basis with the disability fund, insolvency arrives in 2034. This sounds like a countdown to zero, but it isn’t. Here is […]
Markets Target Escape Velocity: SpaceX IPO, Middle Eastern Deal, Fundamentals
Executive Summary The initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX was the largest IPO on record and traded up after its initial pricing per share. Broadly speaking, investors are navigating a market shaped by various forces. Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and uneven consumer resilience are complicating the economic outlook. At the same time, artificial intelligence capex spending continues to support growth, though uncertain […]
Week of June 14, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The intersection of a possibly seminal Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate meeting this week with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the US conflict with Iran and open up the Strait of Hormuz is a good time to remind ourselves that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve includes a commitment […]
Markets Rally as U.S.–Iran Agreement Reopens Strait of Hormuz – June 15, 2026
Good morning, An interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached overnight, with formal signing expected this Friday. In the near term, the most significant element of the deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping. “Interim” is the operative word. While the agreement restores the flow of […]