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Weekly Commentary

Week of June 28, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

As the US looks forward to a week of celebrations of the 250th Anniversary of its founding, it also takes a step into the second half of an extremely tumultuous and consequential year.  “Resilience” is the term that keeps coming up in every economic conversation, but to focus on resilience is to potentially ignore the exceptional success of the American experiment, past, present and hopefully, future.  Much has been made of the boost to economic growth from AI investment and AI-related construction spending, yet it remains that broad swaths of US consumers are making money, and spending money;  last week’s reported 0.7% rise  in personal spending in May contained within it a surprisingly strong inflation-adjusted consumer spending increase of 0.3%.  Employment numbers for June are expected to show ongoing, potentially accelerating job creation with the promise of continued personal income growth.  Areas of weakness certainly exist and are of concern; getting the US housing market “unstuck” (not a technical term, but the most appropriate term.)  is the development  that tops many wish-lists for economic growth in the  second half of 2026 — with only faint hope for near-term improvement. Yet, It is worth noting that  economist  Rudi Dornbusch famously said  “in economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”  He was speaking about economic and financial crises specifically, but let’s look past that and recognize that it captures much of what can happen, and how, in this remarkably dynamic US and global economy.  
 

Data to Watch 

  • US JOLTS job openings data for May, released Tuesday, June 30 
  • Eurozone Consumer Inflation for June, released Wednesday, July 1 
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for June, released Thursday, July 2 

Suggested Reading 

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