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Weekly Commentary

Week of August 09, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

The “K-shaped economy” is back in the news, mostly as a result of the attempts by government officials to deny it exists. Some economists are sympathetic to the frustration over the use of the phrase, which popped onto the scene early in the pandemic shutdown. Originally it was intended to describe an economic recovery pattern where those who could work from home and who had assets benefitting from a rising stock market would do much better than personal service and manufacturing workers who lost employment and depleted savings. Obviously, the 2026 US economy is a long way past the concept of “recovery” and, as has been pointed out before, it is probably more appropriate to think of the US as experiencing a decades long expansion. Furthermore, the experience of an economic recovery that is sharply divergent between categories of workers or segments of the population is not new, and was also observed after the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2001 Dot-Com bust. Some economists have suggested that the seeds of the current “K-shaped economy”— meaning economic growth that has noticeably different effects on different income and/or wealth groups— may in fact have been sown in the years following the Financial Crisis. The strongest argument for dismissing the K-shaped imagery is not that the economic divergence doesn’t exist but that the phrase has become jargon that fails to properly capture the essence of what is occurring. Faith in the concept that an economic rising tide lifts all boats has been seriously challenged by the experience of the last 20 years, and is newly being called into question by the as-yet-not-well-understood effects of AI-driven technological change. The current low-hire, low-fire labor market coupled with a “stuck” housing market may, in the short term, be making things worse, since job change and residential investment are two of the more notable ways in which individuals can raise income and accumulate wealth. As with many things in this dynamic US economy, the shape of the present is not necessarily the shape of the future, and the question facing monetary and fiscal policy makers is the age-old question of “Where the heck is this headed?” 

Data to Watch 

  • US Consumer Price Index for July, released Wednesday, August 12 
  • US Producer Price Index for July, released Thursday, August 13 
  • Euro Zone Industrial Production for June, released Thursday, August 13 
  • Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence for August (preliminary), released Friday, August 14 

Suggested Reading 

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