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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary: Good vs. Not Nearly Good Enough

Worth Watching 

  • US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August, released Wednesday, September 30 
  • US Personal Income and Personal Spending for August, released Wednesday, September 30 
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in September, released Friday, October 2 

Good vs. Not Nearly Good Enough 

Markets are eagerly anticipating the US employment and inflation numbers this week, hoping to confirm a view that the economy is running strong but not too hot and inflation is accelerating only modestly. The hope — and abundant skepticism— is that interest rates have risen sufficiently, and the Federal Reserve can pause and think carefully before yanking the proverbial punchbowl away.   

To the extent that American households are also watching the economic statistics, it is for far different reasons. Fear and concern appear to be the dominant emotions revealed by the most recent Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence for September. Employment growth in the 75,000 to 100,000 range may assuage growing worries over the future of work and the likelihood of badly needed wage gains. The inflation data, however, is not likely to change anyone’s view on the  cost of living, nor lift the gloom setting in as households deal with school expenses, medical bills and end of year holiday spending.   

Suggested Reading 

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