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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary: Trading Partner Problems 

Worth Watching 

  • US Exports for August, released Tuesday, October 6 
  • FOMC minutes from the September 16 Interest Rate Decision, released Wednesday, October 7 
  • US Ten Year Treasury Note Auction, Wednesday, October 7 
  • Preliminary Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence for October, released Friday, October 9 

Trading Partner Problems

Euro Zone inflation rose to an uncomfortably high 3.8% in August.  More inflation and economic data for Europe will be forthcoming this week, along with a number of speeches by European Central Bank officials. Despite signs of a further slowing in economic growth, it is highly likely that the ECB will continue to take a tough line on raising interest rates in an effort to slow the escalation of prices. 

Euro Area Inflation

In 2025, the percentage of US exports going to Europe (including the UK) rose to 28%, exceeding the amount going to Asia for the first time in more than twenty years.  The figure was distorted by a quirky trade in non-monetary gold, as European treasuries moved gold out of the United States due to mounting geopolitical worries.  Nevertheless, Europe is a significant trading partner, and many US companies have a substantial presence in European markets. As the debate over the dependence of the US economy on the data center buildout grows, any sign of weakness or potential weakness in the sale of other goods and services becomes a concern.  Economists are on high alert for the central bank “mistake” that pushes an economy into a recession.  With the US Federal Reserve likely to take a pause on interest rate hikes in October, all eyes are on Europe.   

Suggested Reading 

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