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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – June 9, 2025

Jeanette Garretty

The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the uneasy tenor of the current moment is the apparent difficulty the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having in getting its monthly survey of nonfarm payrolls correct, either because of its reduced staffing (thank you, Elon Musk) or because businesses have had to redirect resources away from filling out surveys and over to filling out government paperwork (thank you, Donald Trump.) Other federal agencies charged with providing the data that a data-driven Federal Reserve relies upon are likely having the same problem. Ultimately, this situation will resolve itself as activities adjust to a new status quo, but it would be better right now to have more information, not less. Of course, the real topic this week will be the bond market, which continues to feel it has all the information it needs about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and doesn’t like what it sees. As the Senate debates possible changes to the bill, the bond market may hold its fire. Yet, Senate revisions are likely to be at the margin and unlikely to fundamentally alter the deficit/debt equation that has investors so worried.

Data to Watch

  1. National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Business Optimism Index for May, released Tuesday, June 10
  2. US Consumer Price Index for May, released Wednesday, June 11
  3. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, Preliminary for June, released Friday, June 13

Suggested Reading

  1. The U.S. Economy Is Headed Toward an Uncomfortable Summer
  2. U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook
  3. Economists Question G.O.P. Bill: Why Increase the Deficit in Good Times?

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