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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – July 21, 2025

Jeanette Garretty

The US economy continues to feel as if some corner has been turned, which is a pretty nifty trick to pull off without an appreciable slowing of economic growth. The week’s data will help to illuminate the degree to which that growth continues into the third quarter; data for June should provide some sense of the momentum going into July, following the shock-and-awe of the tariff announcements in April. For beleaguered economists and data analysts, third quarter economic information is expected to provide greater insight into the actual trend-line response to the re-ordering of global trade relationships (which is still a moving target), as the extraordinary swings in orders, imports, and inventories are thought to have badly distorted the picture in the second quarter. In Europe, however, it is likely that the reverse situation applies, with the impact of US-Euro Area trade negotiations yet to be fully absorbed into business plans and government strategic thinking. And in Japan, where the ruling coalition lost a key election on Sunday, political disarray implies disarray on the economic policy front at exactly the wrong time — especially for the country’s highly important auto industry as it desperately seeks to mitigate US tariffs which threaten access to critical US markets.  

Data to Watch

  1. US Existing Home Sales for June, released Wednesday, July 23
  2. HCOB Purchasing Managers Index for the Eurozone in July (preliminary),  released Thursday, July 24
  3. S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July, released Thursday, July 24
  4. US Durable Goods Orders for June, released Friday,  July 25

Suggested Reading

  1. The Problem With Using Sugar in Soda: The U.S. Doesn’t Make Enough
  2. Factories Were Pushed Out of Cities. Their Return Could Revive Downtowns.
  3. The U.S. Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger

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