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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – September 8, 2025

Jeanette Garretty

The data being released in the next few days should cause a certain amount of acid reflux, both in global financial markets and in Washington, D.C. One statistic that seldom generates much attention outside of economic circles is the annual benchmark revision (think of it as a “true-up” with all the now-available data) in US Nonfarm Payrolls; this year will be different. Although the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McEntarfer, was fired in August over the preparation and reporting of the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers, there have been few departures from the BLS professional staff and no attempt, as yet, to alter the process significantly. Thus, the annual benchmark revision this year, as in the past, should be viewed by investors as reliable and important. The report itself is highly technical; it will be focused on the period between April 2024 and March 2025 to establish a correct March 2025 benchmark for the subsequent monthly numbers.  At present, those who geek out on this sort of thing are expecting a substantial downward revision in employment across that period of time, which is likely to raise concerns about the strength of the US economy—despite the fact that consumer spending remains relatively healthy. Arriving on the doorstep of next week’s Fed meeting, any downward revision in the employment numbers will, of course, up the pressure on the Fed to cut rates and raise the possibility of more aggressive rate cutting than once thought probable. And just to make things even more interesting, August inflation numbers will be released almost immediately following the payroll revision. Keep the Pepcid handy.

Data to Watch

  1. US Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision, released Tuesday, September 9
  2. US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, released Wednesday, September 10
  3. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, released Thursday, September 11
  4. University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence, first September reading, released Friday, September 12

Suggested Reading

  1. That 1990s Tech Brand? Its New Gig Is in Battlefield Data
  2. OPEC+ agrees on a further oil output boost in October to regain market share
  3. Mounting Deportations Meet Slow Hiring in a ‘Curious Kind of Balance’

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