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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – September 22 2025

Jeanette Garretty

Amid the focus last week on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, the threat of a government shutdown wasn’t a dominant issue; there is only so much conflict one can handle at one time. However, the looming deadline for funding the federal government after the current fiscal year ends on September 30 is now the number one topic in Washington, DC. The House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through November 21 — the continuing resolution being required because of the failure thus far to pass the appropriation bills that direct the budget to specific government agencies and activities — but the resolution failed in the Senate, after which Congress promptly took a recess. If the Senate cannot pass a funding resolution that will be agreed to by the House, the impasse will quickly become the number one topic for everyone as the government will shut down. The whole situation is emblematic of a significant, year-long economic problem: the lurching of business activity from one shock to another. In any situation, resilience can and will be built, but such fortitude has a price, often hidden but always paid. It is difficult to say with any substantial intelligence exactly how business and household cost structures have changed, given the wide variety of circumstances and possible responses, but few believe the costs have fallen. 

Data to Watch 

  1. US&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Manufacturing and Services in September, released Tuesday, September 23 
  2. New Home Sales for August, released Wednesday, September 24 
  3. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August, released Friday, September 26 
  4. US Personal Income and Personal Spending for August, released Friday, September 26 

Suggested Reading 

  1. China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged as expected, despite Fed rate cut 
  2. The Poverty Rate Was Stable Last Year, as Household Income Grew Slightly 
  3. Seattle, Tech Boomtown, Grapples With a Future of Fewer Tech Jobs 

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