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Weekly Commentary

Watching the Data: Growth Holds, Labor Questions Remain

In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic strength. Fed Chairman Powell’s discussion of dissent on the FOMC regarding the future path for interest rates ( or, more accurately, the speed of future interest rate adjustments) has raised the importance of understanding the true strength of the U.S. economy and of U.S. labor markets at a time when the Federal Government is providing a bare minimum of data. An apparently successful set of negotiations with Asian trading partners over tariffs imposed or threatened would seem to raise the likelihood that economic growth will continue apace, allowing the Fed to wait and hope for better data on inflation before moving forward with another rate cut. The fundamental problem facing the Fed is that, if the problem is not growth but labor, it is unclear if the Federal Reserve can really stimulate employment in this environment of reduced immigration and increasing use of AI.

Data to Watch

Note: Data not likely to be released because of the U.S. Government shutdown is not listed

  1. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Indices for U.S. Manufacturing for October, released Monday, November 3
  2. ADP U.S. Employment Change for October, released Wednesday, November 5
  3. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Indices for U.S. Services for October, released Wednesday, November5
  4. Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence (preliminary) for November, released Friday, November 7

Suggested Reading

  1. China’s industrial profits surge 21.6% in September, biggest jump in nearly two years
  2. Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees
  3. Soybean Farmers Find Relief in U.S. Trade Truce With China

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