By John Lau, CPA, CFP®
December 1, 2025 – The S&P 500 has bounced back nicely after its early-November dip. We’ve regained most of that pullback, and the market could still deliver a classic “Santa Claus rally” into year-end—but only if a few key events don’t throw cold water on the momentum.
Since the holiday season gets busy and it’s easy to lose track, here’s a simple rundown of the three upcoming events that will likely determine whether we finish the year with new highs… or more market choppiness.
1. The Federal Reserve Meeting (Wednesday, Dec. 10)
The Fed is front and center again.
The market’s recent rebound has depended heavily on friendlier economic data and more “dovish” comments from the Fed (in other words: hints that interest rates are heading lower).
Most people expect the Fed to cut rates again at this meeting—but it’s not guaranteed. They could decide to hold rates steady, which would disappoint markets. An even bigger potential issue: if the Fed hints it might pause rate cuts in 2026. That would be viewed as a negative for stocks.
Bottom line: For the year-end rally to stay alive, markets need reassurance that rate cuts are still on track.
2. Oracle Earnings (Monday, Dec. 8)
Think of Oracle as the “test case” for whether big tech’s massive AI spending is paying off.
Lately, investors have grown worried that tech companies may be spending too much on AI infrastructure—billions and billions in new data centers and equipment—without enough proof that these investments will actually generate strong returns. That concern is one of the reasons the stock market pulled back earlier this month.
Oracle, in particular, has been under the microscope because its financial ratios have weakened as spending ramps up. Their earnings call needs to show two things:
- They still believe their AI investments will pay off, and
- They’re being responsible and disciplined with their spending.
If Oracle can help rebuild confidence, it could repair some of the recent AI skepticism that weighed on the market.
3. The November Jobs Report (Tuesday, Dec. 16)
Because of the government shutdown, we’ve been flying blind on economic data for weeks. That changes now—and the most important report we’ll get before year-end is the November jobs number.
The market is essentially priced for an economy that stays solid. That means:
- Not too hot
- Not too cold
- Steady hiring
- No sudden signs of weakness
If the jobs report shows the labor market softening too much, it could spark worries about growth in 2026—and that would be a negative surprise for stocks.
The Big Picture
Stocks have shown impressive resilience by recovering from the November drop. But a year-end rally is not guaranteed.
The concerns that caused volatility earlier this month haven’t fully disappeared. If any of the events above deliver bad news, we could see some of that volatility return.
For now, the market is “cautiously optimistic”—but keeping a close eye on these catalysts will tell us whether we get a Santa Claus rally, or a bumpier finish to the year.
Our clients rely on us for timely information, and our job is to deliver.
Year-End Rally or Not? Three Things to Keep an Eye On
By John Lau, CPA, CFP®
December 1, 2025 – The S&P 500 has bounced back nicely after its early-November dip. We’ve regained most of that pullback, and the market could still deliver a classic “Santa Claus rally” into year-end—but only if a few key events don’t throw cold water on the momentum.
Since the holiday season gets busy and it’s easy to lose track, here’s a simple rundown of the three upcoming events that will likely determine whether we finish the year with new highs… or more market choppiness.
1. The Federal Reserve Meeting (Wednesday, Dec. 10)
The Fed is front and center again.
The market’s recent rebound has depended heavily on friendlier economic data and more “dovish” comments from the Fed (in other words: hints that interest rates are heading lower).
Most people expect the Fed to cut rates again at this meeting—but it’s not guaranteed. They could decide to hold rates steady, which would disappoint markets. An even bigger potential issue: if the Fed hints it might pause rate cuts in 2026. That would be viewed as a negative for stocks.
Bottom line: For the year-end rally to stay alive, markets need reassurance that rate cuts are still on track.
2. Oracle Earnings (Monday, Dec. 8)
Think of Oracle as the “test case” for whether big tech’s massive AI spending is paying off.
Lately, investors have grown worried that tech companies may be spending too much on AI infrastructure—billions and billions in new data centers and equipment—without enough proof that these investments will actually generate strong returns. That concern is one of the reasons the stock market pulled back earlier this month.
Oracle, in particular, has been under the microscope because its financial ratios have weakened as spending ramps up. Their earnings call needs to show two things:
If Oracle can help rebuild confidence, it could repair some of the recent AI skepticism that weighed on the market.
3. The November Jobs Report (Tuesday, Dec. 16)
Because of the government shutdown, we’ve been flying blind on economic data for weeks. That changes now—and the most important report we’ll get before year-end is the November jobs number.
The market is essentially priced for an economy that stays solid. That means:
If the jobs report shows the labor market softening too much, it could spark worries about growth in 2026—and that would be a negative surprise for stocks.
The Big Picture
Stocks have shown impressive resilience by recovering from the November drop. But a year-end rally is not guaranteed.
The concerns that caused volatility earlier this month haven’t fully disappeared. If any of the events above deliver bad news, we could see some of that volatility return.
For now, the market is “cautiously optimistic”—but keeping a close eye on these catalysts will tell us whether we get a Santa Claus rally, or a bumpier finish to the year.
Our clients rely on us for timely information, and our job is to deliver.
Disclosure and Source
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance objectives, targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are speculative and involve substantial risks including significant loss of principal, high illiquidity, long time horizons, uneven growth rates, high fees, onerous tax consequences, limited transparency and limited regulation. Alternative investments are not suitable for all investors and are only available to qualified investors. Please refer to the private placement memorandum for a complete listing and description of terms and risks. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere. A0001
Securities offered through Fortune Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC and Fortune Financial Services, Inc. are separate entities and are not affiliated.
For information about Robertson Stephens, go to www.rscapital.com.
Talk To Us