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Weekly Commentary

Inflation, Housing, and Fed Speeches: A Pivotal Week Ahead

Having hopefully shaken off the always-lethargic start to the new year, investors will be bombarded by data this week, some of it still questionable in quality. For example, the usefulness of Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers for October, delayed because of the government shut-down, is not even being discounted — it’s largely being dismissed. However, December data on prices, as well as additional data on the state of the US housing industry, will be highly relevant to the renewed and (as of late Sunday night) inflamed focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, January 27-28. At least 14 speeches are scheduled by voting members of the FOMC, either shedding additional light on the divisions that became apparent at the last FOMC meeting or completely muddying the waters on the same. What really comes of those speeches now that President Trump and Secretary Bessent have escalated the conflict remains to be seen.

Data to Watch

  1. US Consumer Price Index for December, released Tuesday, January 13
  2. US New Home Sales for December, released Tuesday, January 13
  3. US Producer Price Index for November, released Wednesday, January 14
  4. Federal Reserve “Beige Book” Survey of Regional Economic Conditions, released Wednesday, January 14

Suggested Reading

  1. E.U. and South America to Form Free-Trade Zone With 700 Million People
  2. Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer
  3. Trade deficit in October hits smallest since 2009 after Trump’s tariff moves

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