Good morning,
A little more than halfway through January (56%), equity markets had been enjoying a welcome broadening of leadership into sectors not known for direct AI exposure (though nearly all sectors will ultimately be influenced by AI). More importantly, that expansion has coincided with persistently higher yields across the curve and a meaningful shift in Fed expectations—now pointing to no rate cuts until late in the year, if at all.
Month-to-date through last Friday’s close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 were up +1.44%, +1.19%, and a robust +7.92%, respectively. That was the setup—until this morning.
Equity futures are down roughly -1.5% as European governments react sharply to President Trump’s renewed tariff threats tied to his push for geopolitical concessions around Greenland. We’ve seen this movie before. While the closest analog may be last April’s tariff freeze, there is little reason to assume this episode resolves overnight. One hopes it avoids anything resembling last spring’s volatility and market damage.
Elsewhere—though it may prove secondary—we face a holiday-shortened earnings week with no major blockbuster reports on deck, alongside the release of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation index.
For now, the Greenland situation is likely to dominate the week’s narrative—and it remains nearly impossible to handicap.
Be well,
Mike