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Weekly Commentary

Week of February 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

“Head-spinning” is the word for the week. The Supreme Court rejection of many (not all) of President Trump’s tariffs served to sweep under the rug an almost embarrassing scramble to explain how the fourth quarter GDP estimate came in so far below projections, while the broad-based measure of inflation known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index came in well-above expectations. It is true that a government shutdown always has a transitory negative impact and it is equally true that there had been other signs that inflation was running hotter at the end of 2025 than the 2.4% reported for the start of 2026. Nevertheless, the net effect of the “miss” on the emerging economic optimism of the last few weeks was palpable.  The tariff ruling by the Supreme Court really only added to an overriding sense of “Now What?” Given a demonstrated ability on the part of economic participants around the world to deal with geopolitical chaos (pandemic, tariffs, Ukraine, Iran) and ulcer-inducing levels of uncertainty, it would seem most likely that a forecast for modest growth and gradually improving inflation is still the best forecast. Time will tell if it is the right forecast.

Data to Watch 

  • US Factory Orders for December, released Monday, February 23 
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey for February,  released Tuesday, February 24 
  • US Producer Price Index for January, released Friday, February 27 

Suggested Reading 

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