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Weekly Commentary

Week of June 07, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary 

US job growth in May was unexpectedly strong. Although the Federal Reserve says it continues to worry about the downside on US labor markets, it’s the upside on inflation commanding all the attention. More specifically, consumer inflation expectations are the concern. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and global tariffs may be transitory (a now infamous word, but appropriate to use once again) and therefore not warrant an interest rate hike yet rising consumer inflation expectations risk an entrenchment of inflation that monetary authorities might feel called to act upon.  The next meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) — the official interest rate=setting body in the United States — is a mere 10 days away and the inflation data for May is arriving enough in advance to allow for the Fed’s intellectual battlelines to be drawn, examined and amended.  With bond market yields elevated, bond traders are ready to pounce, and the additional energy provided by Kevin Warsh’s presence means these two weeks have the feel of a fast-moving train to somewhere, destination still unknown.   

Data to Watch 

  • Federal Reserve Ban of New York Consumer Inflation Expectations for May, released Monday, June 8 
  • US Consumer Price Index for May, released Wednesday, June 10 
  • US Producer Price Index for May, released Thursday, June 11 

Suggested Reading 

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