China has been confronting the challenge of slowing growth for several years now. If trade partners continue to erect obstacles to Chinese exports, the challenge will become more acute.
Same-store sales are a traditional indicator of consumer spending strength for the retail industry. Retailers can grow either through rising same store sales or increasing the number of stores, or both. There is some evidence of weakening same-store sales, but this does not, as yet, seem to be showing up in the US restaurant industry.
It was hard to avoid the news this week that the US national debt has hit $40 trillion. Net interest payment on the debt is now the third largest category of government spending, behind Social Security and Medicare.
There are a lot of bonds being issued in markets right now, not just by the US government, but also by other governments and large private issuers seeking to finance AI investments. All that debt offered for sale is running into buyers more than a little worried about the economic environment and inflation. Hence the sharp rise in the yield of the 30-year Treasury.
Rising long term interest push up US mortgage rates, making already expensive housing even more so. Housing experts believe that even when mortgage rates return to lower levels, lowering the actual cost of new housing will be important. Manufactured housing (mobile homes) and modular housing (off-site constructed homes) are increasingly thought to be important players in this effort, but they remain a very small part of the total home sales market.
