Good morning,
Not much happened across the major markets last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.39%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined just one basis point to 4.70%, and the dollar, gold, and oil were similarly quiet. Even Iran faded from the headlines. Most of the country was under a heat dome—and, apparently, so were the markets.
Perhaps the most important takeaway was further evidence that U.S. inflation is cooling, reflected in both the CPI and PPI reports and supported by the Retail Sales data. We should also update the technology correction that began in June: it appears to be over.
On that note, this week begins with a stronger bid across the technology sector, with Nasdaq futures up approximately 0.5% before the open. Anthropic reinforced expectations that massive AI spending will continue, providing fresh evidence of rapidly growing demand for its products.
The economic calendar is light, featuring Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Import Prices—none of which typically moves markets significantly. Earnings from the major retailers will take center stage, with analysts generally expecting positive surprises and improved guidance.
Bottom line: We may be in for another sleepy, hot summer week. However, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes—and what they may signal about the Fed’s likely September decision—combined with retail earnings, should help shape the near-term outlook for equities, interest rates, and the dollar. That assumes, of course, that nothing imminent develops in Iran, which appears less likely with each passing week.
Have a good week. I’ll see you next Monday.
Be well,
Mike