Unnerving Volatility
June 10, 2022 Good morning, When news flow in the way of economic data is light, and Fed Governors are mum (blacked-out ahead of FOMC meetings), and market volume is low, volatility often jumps up and markets decline for no apparent reason. There were no headlines that pointed to a -2.4% loss on the S&P […]
Jeanette Garretty on Money Life
June 9 – 2022 Our Chief Economist, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Money Life to discuss “Yes, a recession is coming, but ‘garden-variety’ and short.” “U.S. economic recession, with a couple of quarters negative and then a fairly quick rebound in economic activity with the markets leading that rebound quite sharply,” says Garretty. Listen here: https://bit.ly/3GVrSPU
Why Are Retests So Common To A Bottom
June 8, 2022 Good morning, There is no better indicator of market performance over long periods of time than earnings and their growth. Earnings forecasting is the bedrock of fundamental analysis and is the most highly correlated factor to market performance over long time spans. However, over shorter time spans – not so much. For […]
May 2022 Monthly Letter
The numbers in the May column on the chart below bely the trauma investors experienced through the month. All the major equity indexes hit their worst levels of the year (so far) in the middle of the month. At their Year-to-Date worst, at mid-month, the S&P was off – 18.2%, Nasdaq -28.0%, Russell 2000 -23.5%, […]
Noisy Summer
June 6, 2022 Good morning, Futures are up 1% overnight leading into this week’s market open. Some good news out of China would seem to be the explanation for the market’s overnight strength but the China headlines are thin, I suspect it’s something else – volatility. There is very little in the way of major […]
Stuart Katz on TD Ameritrade Network
June 3 – 2022 Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz appeared on TD Ameritrade discussing “Is the Stock Market on Sale?” “Investors have been experiencing recent price discovery. On a day like this, people are experiencing FOMO.” Watch the full video here: https://bit.ly/3MgIYsL
How About Average Worst Case?
June 2, 2022 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index has corrected 18.7% on a closing basis. We’ve looked at 2022 as the Great Unwind (of the massive central bank stimulus of 2020-21) from several aspects trying to gauge how much of the Unwind has been priced into the market. It seems that the stock market […]
Stuart Katz featured in Citywire
Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz was featured in Citywire to discuss the real estate sector in “Building on A Solid Foundation of Demand.” “There are several favorable dynamics supporting strong defensive earnings growth, including supply and demand imbalances and higher construction costs that are slowing attractively priced new homes.” Read the full piece here: https://bit.ly/3M3bMF0
Unconfirmed Is Not Necessarily a Negative
May 31, 2022 Good morning, Overnight Futures began their Sunday night session in the green, perhaps a carryover from last week’s strong equity market rebound (S&P 500 was +6.58% on the week). However, as Europe opened for trading, the world was reminded that inflation is not simply a U.S. issue. Eurozone CPI surged to an […]
A Bottoming Process
May 27, 2022 Good morning, Fridays before a 3-day holiday weekend are often quiet affairs for markets. The overnight trading session for U.S. Futures was true to form then – a very quiet affair (Futures +0 to 20bps before the open). With trading desks lightly covered by only the lowest tenured and interns – today […]
Rental Properties and Aging
By Mallon FitzPatrick, CFP Seasoned investors who are approaching advanced years may hold significant rental real estate assets as part of their investment portfolio. Given the stock market’s recent volatility, their strategy can make sense, as real estate may offer more stability than other risky assets and can act as an inflation hedge. Rental real […]
Psychologically Dark
May 25, 2022 Good morning, European stocks and U.S. Futures were quiet and largely unchanged overnight and into this morning, right up until China’s Premier Li said his country’s economic difficulties are worse now than in 2020. Global markets dropped about half a percent, and are sitting there now awaiting the opening of our cash […]