Entering The Testing Zone
November 2, 2022 Good morning, About three weeks ago, while the equity market and its psyche were making new lows, we suggested (here) that if equities could just hold on and possibly stabilize into the end of the month, we might see a few catalysts in early November that could spark a year end rally. The […]
Already Different
October 31, 2022 Good morning, Happy Halloween. We say goodbye to October today, not terribly surprised that it is handing us off to November in the midst of a rally in equity markets. While Octobers tend to do that, what has been a surprise is just how remarkable the rally off the recent lows has […]
Always Looking Ahead
October 28, 2022 Good morning, Yesterday’s big earnings day has come and gone, and the equity market has come through it relatively unscathed. That’s not to say there hasn’t been sheer destruction in some individual names. Amazon was down -20% (not a typo, twenty percent!) in after market trading within minutes of sharing terrible forward […]
Chart Day
October 26, 2022 Good morning, Our young (now 9-days old), emerging rally in equities has had a good start to the week with the S&P 500 Index up +2.83% over the past two days. It has rallied right into its first wall of overhead resistance on its chart – its own steeply declining 50 dma […]
Wild Times in Bond Land
October 24, 2022 Good morning, On Friday morning we observed the significant rise in yields in bond land for the week through Thursday, and the headwinds rising yields typically have on equity prices. We noted that all things considered, equities had made a good showing through the first four days of the week, especially considering […]
You’re Right, But …
October 21, 2022 Good morning, Futures are down 1% at overnight session lows this morning about an hour before U.S. markets open. They are off due to the continued spike in yields on Treasuries and new relative highs on the Dollar. Earlier this week, I suggested choppy, sideways action may be in store for stocks leading […]
A Two-Week Data Vacuum?
October 19, 2022 Good morning, Futures are off just a bit this morning (-.3%), following two rally days for the S&P 500, now up +3.82% for the week. The next two weeks may be choppy but sideways for markets with little important economic data around the Inflation-Fed narrative leading right into the next Fed meeting […]
Not Much To Add
October 16, 2022 Good morning, Sorry about Friday’s Morning Note – the part regarding the likely beginning of another bear market rally. A rally did not begin Friday, the S&P 500 Index was down -2.37% on the day, and ended the week off -1.55%. However, short and intermediate term pessimism (technically, deeply oversold market conditions) […]
Enough or Not
October 12, 2022 Good morning, Futures are up roughly +0.70% (25 pts), pointing to a modest recovery at the opening bell. Pepsi just delivered its quarterly update, and its stock is up +2% premarket, saying consumers continue to purchase more of its snacks and soft drinks despite rising inflation. Not a bad way to jump-start […]
It’s Still Volatile Out There
October 10, 2022 Good morning, It’s a half-holiday day today for the markets as bond trading and banks are closed. Futures are off fractionally. It will likely be a low volume, low volatility day, as hard as that might be to imagine. Watching the S&P 500 drop -2.8% on Friday and still close the week up […]
September 2022 Monthly Letter
Central banks around the world are once again acting in concert. The last time, in 2020, it was a coordinated response to the pandemic, with unprecedented capital infusions into their respective economies. Today, without admitting or denying guilt of over-stimulating, they are all working to bring inflation under control, despite the inherent risks to the growth outlook. […]
No Surprise This Morning
October 7, 2022 Good morning, September employment data came in this morning (8:30am EDT) and the report was spot-on expectations for a change. Payrolls for September increased +263k vs +265k expected. It’s the first data test for the rally that began Monday, and the initial market move has Futures off -1%. Remember, initial market moves off any […]