May 2022 Monthly Letter
The numbers in the May column on the chart below bely the trauma investors experienced through the month. All the major equity indexes hit their worst levels of the year (so far) in the middle of the month. At their Year-to-Date worst, at mid-month, the S&P was off – 18.2%, Nasdaq -28.0%, Russell 2000 -23.5%, […]
Noisy Summer
June 6, 2022 Good morning, Futures are up 1% overnight leading into this week’s market open. Some good news out of China would seem to be the explanation for the market’s overnight strength but the China headlines are thin, I suspect it’s something else – volatility. There is very little in the way of major […]
Stuart Katz on TD Ameritrade Network
June 3 – 2022 Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz appeared on TD Ameritrade discussing “Is the Stock Market on Sale?” “Investors have been experiencing recent price discovery. On a day like this, people are experiencing FOMO.” Watch the full video here: https://bit.ly/3MgIYsL
How About Average Worst Case?
June 2, 2022 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index has corrected 18.7% on a closing basis. We’ve looked at 2022 as the Great Unwind (of the massive central bank stimulus of 2020-21) from several aspects trying to gauge how much of the Unwind has been priced into the market. It seems that the stock market […]
Stuart Katz featured in Citywire
Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz was featured in Citywire to discuss the real estate sector in “Building on A Solid Foundation of Demand.” “There are several favorable dynamics supporting strong defensive earnings growth, including supply and demand imbalances and higher construction costs that are slowing attractively priced new homes.” Read the full piece here: https://bit.ly/3M3bMF0
Unconfirmed Is Not Necessarily a Negative
May 31, 2022 Good morning, Overnight Futures began their Sunday night session in the green, perhaps a carryover from last week’s strong equity market rebound (S&P 500 was +6.58% on the week). However, as Europe opened for trading, the world was reminded that inflation is not simply a U.S. issue. Eurozone CPI surged to an […]
A Bottoming Process
May 27, 2022 Good morning, Fridays before a 3-day holiday weekend are often quiet affairs for markets. The overnight trading session for U.S. Futures was true to form then – a very quiet affair (Futures +0 to 20bps before the open). With trading desks lightly covered by only the lowest tenured and interns – today […]
Rental Properties and Aging
By Mallon FitzPatrick, CFP Seasoned investors who are approaching advanced years may hold significant rental real estate assets as part of their investment portfolio. Given the stock market’s recent volatility, their strategy can make sense, as real estate may offer more stability than other risky assets and can act as an inflation hedge. Rental real […]
Psychologically Dark
May 25, 2022 Good morning, European stocks and U.S. Futures were quiet and largely unchanged overnight and into this morning, right up until China’s Premier Li said his country’s economic difficulties are worse now than in 2020. Global markets dropped about half a percent, and are sitting there now awaiting the opening of our cash […]
More Volatile Days Likely Ahead
May 23, 2022 Good morning, Last Friday was a monthly expiration day for the derivative world, and its common practice to discount the implications a volatile expiration day might portend. That said, equities are starting the week in a positive mood this morning, perhaps to some extent as a follow-through to Friday’s impressive late session […]
Neighborhood Shopping
May 20, 2022 Good morning, Many have referred to the current market as the Great Unwind – paying back the extra ordinary market gains resulting from the massive stimulus over the past two years. There is some good news on the degree-of-Unwind front, specifically the excessive speculation seen in the last cycle. Margin debt has […]
Feel Is Not Real
May 19, 2022 Good morning, Years ago, I changed the cadence of my Morning Notes from every day (M-F) to every other day (M,W,F), adjusted for holidays (T,Th). During periods of elevated Volatility (euphemism for sell-offs), I reverted back to every-day in an effort to possibly calm some emotional fears that are parabolically related to […]