At Least Now We Know
February 24, 2022 Good morning, No, it isn’t a good morning. Putin’s Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of the Ukraine. Something the world has feared for weeks, but the majority believed wouldn’t ultimately happen. Putin’s has unveiled his near term goal – to demilitarize the Ukraine and force a regime change for the whole […]
Traders Taking A Shot This Morning
February 23, 2022 Good morning, By the time the market closed yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had lost another 1%, but it was much higher than that and much lower than that over the course of the day’s session. There is a lot of indecision out there. There is just too much uncertainty to discount, […]
Is 5.5% Enough?
February 22, 2022 Good morning, Last Monday, following a down -2%-ish week, we listed a half a dozen market concerns constituting a rather high wall of worry that the market would have to climb in order to resume its bullish tendencies. We postulated that only bad news could possibly be good news provided the market […]
Until It Clears
February 18, 2022 Good morning, Similar to Wednesday’s note, the only thing the market is focusing on is the increasing uncertainty going on in the Ukraine. Until that clears trading is just noise, and I don’t think any other market commentary is of much value. Hope you have a good holiday weekend. Be well,Mike
Normal Discovery Stalled Under Blanket of Uncertainty
February 16, 2022 Good morning, The latest retail sales numbers are due before this morning’s market open. Minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting will be released this afternoon. Without the threat of an act of war at the Ukrainian border, the sales numbers and minutes would be important data inputs to the market’s discovery mechanism […]
Encouragement Where There Is None
February 14, 2022 Good morning, Futures are little changed now, 90min before the cash market open. They spent most of the night down over one percent on geopolitical concerns and rallied sharply back to Friday’s closing levels when Russia’s Foreign Minister announced “we can see a way to move forward with talks”. That should wring […]
Not Fatal
February 11, 2022 Good morning, Our equity rebound rally took a severe blow yesterday. Between a stronger than expected CPI report (inflation) in the morning, and Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard’s afternoon remarks that he would favor a 50bps intra-meeting rate hike (meaning now, before the next scheduled Fed meeting in […]
Let It Roll (and New Digs)
February 9, 2022 Good morning, Admin. Note: we’re moving into our new offices this week (see signature below). Just below Central Park and sitting on top of Times Square – we would all love to have you stop by when you’re in town, please! Futures have been steadily climbing all night and are up nicely […]
Home Again, Home Again
February 7, 2022 Good morning, Welcome back! I did breath a sigh of relief Friday afternoon knowing that the first bona-fide, disconnect vacation in a long time for me, didn’t end with a free-falling equity market. What a nice change – maybe I should do it more often now. Last week the equity market had […]
Warning
January 31, 2022 Good morning, From a short term perspective (days and weeks), the sell-off this month shares more characteristics with a correction than the beginning of a bear market. The technical indicators describe a rotational correction, not a new bear market. Correlations typically get very strong and run high in a bear market, and […]
Tantrums
January 27, 2022 Good morning, It looks like yesterday morning’s rally was just a pre-Fed meeting drift and not a stronger, lasting shift away from correction mode for the markets. The tantrum continues I suppose. I haven’t used that word to describe this month’s market decline but I do think that’s what we seeing. Tantrum […]
Pre-Fed Drift or Shift
January 26, 2022 Good morning, Happy Fed Day and thank goodness it’s here, at least from the view of overnight sentiment. Futures are up for a change this morning, +1.75% with Nasdaq futures up +2.5%. I think we know only too well that where markets are early in the morning ET, has little bearing on […]