Leans Toward Favorable
January 25, 2022 Good morning, Talk about elevated volatility. The major indexes dropped over 4% (no typo, four whole percent) yesterday morning before turning around, recouping all the losses on the day, and finishing just slightly above where they ended on Friday. In the case of the S&P 500, it finished the wild day up […]
Not a Clarion Bell to Sell
January 24, 2022 Good morning, In just four days last week, the U.S. equity market suffered a heavy toll with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 down -5.67%, -7.55% and -8.07%, respectively. And for the fist time in 2yrs, Covid doesn’t make the list of the top reasons for the sell-off. Side-note: this probably […]
Rates and Their Rate
January 20, 2022 Good morning, Overnight futures on the major indexes are pointing modestly higher this morning. 90 min before the opening bell, the Dow is up +120pts, while the S&P’s are up +.40% (Nasdaq is up twice that). Although we know just how untrustworthy overnight price action is in dictating what happens during the […]
Higher Rates Again Weighting on Stocks
January 18, 2022 Good morning, We had a pretty quiet 3-day weekend market-wise. Omicron appears to be peaking in a number of locals (including NYC), however that seems to be of no concern to the market. What has its attention this morning is rising rates, and the now 2wk old consolidation looks to continue as […]
Focus On The Data, Not The Digits
January 14, 2022 Good morning, The choppy (volatile) consolidation, led by technology, that began last week looks like it will march on right through the end of this week too. The only difference this week is that selling has broadened out – the Russell 2000 is leading indexes down so far this week for example. […]
That’s Volatility
January 12, 2022 Good morning, Terror was palpable in the markets Monday morning as the Nasdaq Index (tech) plummeted again, and cracked the -10% level (from its high) intraday. Traders openly wondered if there would ever be a bid for a tech stock again. Yesterday, for whatever reason, investors reacted to Chair Powell’s comments as […]
One Word
January 10, 2022 Good morning, The first week of the year, following what I thought was a surprising Santa Rally, is best described in one word: consolidation. The S&P 500 was off only -1.87% on the week, but growth bore the brunt of it, with the NASDAQ down -4.52% comparatively. Tech (growth) is the largest […]
More Fear?
January 7, 2022 Good morning, The December employment numbers were released at 8:30 am ET this morning to mixed results. The headline number was well short of expectations with only a 200,000 increase in payrolls vs 450,000 expected. Not a good headline for the economy, but beneath it the numbers exceeded expectations with the unemployment […]
NOT Fear Mongering – Just Prepping
January 5, 2022 Good morning, It’s a Fed day of sorts, the minutes of the last FOMC gathering – the one where they doubled the pace of taper and released a new dot plot – are set for release this afternoon. Worth noting, rates have recently jumped up – the 10yr UST yield is up […]
Consensus
January 3, 2022 Good morning, HNY everyone, I hope you all had a wonderful holiday. Surely, the equity markets did. Officially the Santa Rally includes the first two trading days of the new year, and true to form, Futures are up +0.5% this morning ahead of a jammed pack week of economic data culminating with […]
To Your Health & Happiness
December 28, 2021 Good morning, I hope you are well recovered from a nice holiday weekend and are prepared for another one ahead. It seems like our bull market has had a very spirited week as well, with no signs of slowing through next week. It appears that my cautious tone in these notes since Thanksgiving, […]
Merry Merry
December 22, 2021 Good morning, Wow, elevated volatility into the holiday illiquidity zone mentioned Monday was an understatement. Monday’s torpedoed Build Back Better Bill (4B’s) and Omicron-is-Awful sentiment slammed markets down 1% across the board. Tuesday’s 4B’s is not dead yet, and Omicron-is-Mild sentiment sent market prices skyward, retracing Monday’s losses and then some. This […]