Economic Commentary – March 10, 2025
It is a measure of how worried investors are about economic growth when Fed Chairman Powell pushes the equity markets UP by signaling no that interest rate cuts are coming any time soon. A few short months ago, this message from the Fed would have been viewed as a cold, wet blanket on a smoking hot […]
Investment Commentary – March 10, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned -3.1% as uncertainty over tariffs and weak economic data roiled markets. The U.S. dollar saw its longest losing streak since last September, ending the weak down 3.5% while treasury yields climbed amid worries that tariffs would spark inflation. The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks again dragged on the market, returning -4.5%. Financials […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – March 10, 2025
Staying Ahead of Volatility Even with seemingly stable economic data and company fundamentals, there’s an undercurrent of fear and uncertainty that may lead to further market volatility. It’s important to stay alert during these turbulent times and proactively guard against risks. One area to review is leverage in the form of margin loans and pledged […]
Economic Commentary – March 3, 2025
The data keeps piling up on the side of economic caution and weakness for this first quarter of 2025. Retail sales, residential real estate (including home improvement), consumer spending (including on services), business spending, and inventories all have indicated a slower pace for US economic activity for the start of the year, coming off a […]
Investment Commentary – March 3, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned -1.0%; the damage would have been worse if not for a 1.6% window-dressing rally in the final two hours of month-end trading. The NASDAQ dropped -3.5% as the Mag 7 stocks fell 4.0% for the week. Treasury yields fell to their lowest level of the year amid a host of […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – March 3, 2025
IRS Layoffs During Tax Season The administration’s cost-reduction plan has led to IRS staff layoffs, affecting approximately 6,700 employees right in the middle of tax season. The new DOGE cuts primarily impact the Small Business/Self-Employed Division, which focuses on compliance for businesses with under $10 million in assets. As a result, those who file their […]
Investment Commentary – February 24, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 hovered near its all-time highs, while the bond market ended the week with gains (price up / Yield down) as weaker-than-expected retail sales rekindled hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A rally in Treasuries drove the 10-Year Yield below 4.5%, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains—the longest streak since […]
Economic Commentary – February 24, 2025
Was last Friday’s US Purchasing Managers Index for Services the proverbial shot across the bow? It was certainly an attention-grabber, coming in below expectations and indicating the first monthly contraction in the service sector in two years. Although it is not unusual to see a certain amount of drop-off in January spending following a robust holiday […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – February 24, 2025
Market Jitters Recent economic indicators suggest the economy may be cooling, including a decline in the US Purchasing Managers Index for Services and a weaker-than-expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. This could lead to market volatility and increased uncertainty. A brief review of your plan may reassure those concerned about market fluctuations. Modeling a scenario with […]
Investment Commentary – February 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 hovered near its all-time highs, while the bond market ended the week with gains (price up / Yield down) as weaker-than-expected retail sales rekindled hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A rally in Treasuries drove the 10-Year Yield below 4.5%, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains—the longest streak since […]
Economic Commentary – February 18, 2025
It is more than a bit unusual, in an economy growing almost 3% and an unemployment rate at 4%, to suddenly see so many Google (and ChatGPT) searches on the subject of US Unemployment Benefits. Normally, questions about unemployment benefits materialize when an economy is weakening, the unemployment rate is rising and in the context […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – February 18, 2025
Navigating Inflation Inflation remains a concern, holding steady at 3% (U.S. Consumer Price Index, February 2025). Given this persistence, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates aggressively. While this may feel unsettling, it is important to put the numbers in perspective. The 50-year average inflation rate before 2022 hovered around 2.3%, but now it […]