Weekly Commentary

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with a more than side-long glance at economic activity in the United States and China. Wednesday’s announcement of interest rate changes – a 50 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate is widely expected—and

The US economy continues its steadfast march to the end of the year, with few signs of weakening consumer spending and a still strong labor market. The Federal Reserve is inclined to keep raising interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, as indicated

There is mounting evidence that global inflation has peaked. Decelerating price increases or outright price declines are primarily witnessed in wholesale/producer prices which may account for as much as half of the unusually sharp rise in inflation

Another Fed rate increase in December, following on the recent 75 bps increases, which have probably yet to have a full impact on the economy, may be sufficient to establish a different pace of growth – and a different, lower outlook for inflation—as

The modest reversal in consumer price trends signaled by last week’s CPI numbers was welcome – but should not be assigned undue importance.  Inflation is still “too high” from the Federal Reserve’s perspective and, even more problematic,

With the latest -- and much-foreshadowed -- 75bps hike in the Fed Funds rate announced last week, interest rates have conclusively entered the realm of "constrictive," i.e., serving to reduce economic growth by depressing final demand. This week's

History tells us that markets don’t find a bottom until investors begin to anticipate a combination of rate cuts due to softening inflation, leading indicators point to improved growth, and valuations price a bear case scenario. We believe there

Much of the tone for 2023 will be set by the inflation numbers being released in the march to the end of 2022 and the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the embodied inflation risks. It slightly appears that the debate over peak inflation has been

Three weeks into the fourth quarter of 2022, questions are mounting as to whether the US economy can continue to grow at the estimated 2% annual pace likely to be reported for the third quarter, on October 27. As yet, inflation has not responded to

We believe an era of low inflation, low interest rates and supportive fiscal and monetary policy has ended. We believe interest rates will probably need to stay higher for longer to tackle sticky inflation and weigh on economic growth. Last week’s US