Markets Rebound as Fed Signals December Rate Cut
Executive Summary Last week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of November’s losses. The rally was sparked by commentary from the Federal Reserve suggesting a December rate cut is back on the table. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, […]
Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect
Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role played by changes in wealth. Retirement accounts and home equity constitute more than 60% of US Household wealth and these two important components of wealth, like […]
Strategic Charitable Giving Before 2026: Maximize Your Deductions Under OBBBA
As we enter the final weeks of the year, it is an important moment to revisit charitable giving strategies, especially given the meaningful tax changes taking effect in 2026 under OBBBA. For those who donate regularly, front-loading charitable gifts this month may help maximize deductions before the new limitations begin. In 2026, OBBBA will introduce […]
September Metrics Establish Baseline Amid Limited Government Reporting
Economic data for September continues to gush out like water at the end of a fire hose. The problem seems to be that September feels like a LONG time ago. Nevertheless, reports on September employment (last week), and Producer Prices and Retail Sales (both this week), help to establish the base on which the economy is […]
Holiday Estate Planning Conversations: How to Share Your Plan With Family
It’s that time of year again! The holidays give many families a chance to gather in one place, creating an opportunity to have conversations about the future. Even a small step now – sharing your thoughts on aging, care, or estate plans – could help prevent confusion, conflict, or stress down the road for your […]
Hawkish Fed, Weakening Labor Data, and Markets Pushing Cuts to 2026
Executive Summary The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly […]
A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]
Year-End Tax Priorities Before OBBBA Changes Take Effect in 2026
As 2025 draws to a close, this year’s tax review carries added urgency. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law in July, made several individual tax rate cuts permanent – averting a reversal of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). However, beginning January 1, 2026, a series of new provisions […]
From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown
There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but also the grocers and farmers who supply the food that would be purchased with the SNAP monies. Federal worker incomes are the lifeblood of many […]
Earnings Strength Anchors a Volatile Market
Executive Summary The stock market has stayed resilient with sporadic pullbacks and shots of volatility. We expect this choppiness to continue into year-end. The real story remains the same: The economy has been resilient, the consumer has been resilient, and the Fed has cut rates in an economic expansion due to an increased focus on […]
Watching the Data: Growth Holds, Labor Questions Remain
In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic strength. Fed Chairman Powell’s discussion of dissent on the FOMC regarding the future path for interest rates ( or, more accurately, the speed of future interest […]
S&P Gains Mask Underlying Market Exhaustion
Executive Summary Last week, large-capitalization S&P 500 stocks advanced 0.7%, but small stocks lagged. The three material items for the week included broadly positive big tech earnings, the Fed meeting featuring an expected 25 basis point (bps) cut, and the end of quantitative tightening[1] as of 12/1/25, along with a warning that another cut in […]