Economic Commentary – August 25, 2025
The White House’s intense focus on the monthly labor market revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has muddied the debate over the true health of US employment and its near-term direction. Even without the revisions, there would be serious questions as to the policy implications of the nonfarm payroll numbers. For example, is the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: August 22, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, the US consumer, the housing market, and job openings.
Economic Commentary – August 18, 2025
An invite to the annual Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium — officially, “The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming”— has been highly prized almost from the event’s founding in 1982. There are few gatherings of central bankers, government officials, academics, and financial industry leaders that can compare with the quality of […]
Economic Commentary – August 11, 2025
Inflation returns to center stage this week with the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These numbers have significance for all the usual reasons, but now will be viewed in the context of a July employment report weak enough to have shifted the thinking to an “almost-certain” September […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: August 8, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
Economic Commentary – August 4, 2025
The flood of economic data last week measured up to all expectations — and probably exceeded more than a few. Collectively, the data painted a picture that most people had already sketched out, one of slowing economic growth, some upward pressure on prices, and a Federal Reserve facing murky uncertainties. Even if the Federal Open Market […]
FOMC Commentary – July 30, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Meeting concluded with a decision to leave the Fed Funds Target Range at 4.25%-4.5%. This decision was widely expected, as were the dissenting votes of Fed Governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, both of whom voted for a quarter-point interest rate cut.
Economic Commentary – July 28, 2025
Occasionally, the amount of economic data made available in a short time can seem overwhelming. Such is the case this week, where the “main event” is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, but inflation, employment, consumption, and housing data for Q2 and July all appropriately deserve equal attention. Thankfully, much of the important data will […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: July 25, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
Economic Commentary – July 21, 2025
The US economy continues to feel as if some corner has been turned, which is a pretty nifty trick to pull off without an appreciable slowing of economic growth. The week’s data will help to illuminate the degree to which that growth continues into the third quarter; data for June should provide some sense of the […]
2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz break down what happened in the first half of 2025 and provide their outlook for the remainder of the year.
Economic Commentary – July 14, 2025
July doesn’t feel much like the summer doldrums yet. Tariff threats are flying, bilateral deals are being hammered out (we hope, albeit with minimal details), and economist Kevin Hassett is the latest policymaker trying to engineer a Federal Reserve coup. One way to understand the economic policy disarray is to appreciate that wars in Ukraine […]