Economic Commentary – July 7, 2025
And just like that, it’s back to tariff turmoil. It would seem, however, that the shock of (saber-rattling?) threats to impose massive tariff increases by either July 9 — the old deadline — or a potentially new deadline of August 1, is greater for some US trading partners than it is for US-based companies. This […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade
July 4, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was interviewed on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade. She breaks down the potential economic impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Watch Jeanette below at 24:52.
Economic Commentary – June 30, 2025
Fireworks generally start well before Fourth of July in neighborhoods around the country. This curtailed week for market-moving data is no exception. The economic cherry bombs will be in the form of employment data, which could as easily be a bust as a large and startling “Boom”. And there will be plenty of sparklers highlighting […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
June 26, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty joined Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to share her perspective during the Drive to the Close segment. Tune in at 35:00 for her insights on the current market outlook and the potential challenges investors may face ahead.Listen here.
Economic Commentary – June 23, 2025
Any business looking for calm seemingly can’t catch a break. The Federal Reserve feels that pain, too. Just as inflation was on the verge of becoming a lesser concern, albeit at the expense of increased worries about economic growth, a war in the Middle East raises the specter of gas and oil price spikes working their way […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on BloombergTV
June 19, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was interviewed yesterday on BloombergTV. She discusses why “wait and watch” is the Fed’s only real option right now—and Powell seems surprisingly at ease with the current economic outlook. Hear why Jeanette thinks rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon in this sharp analysis, starting at 10:30. Watch Jeanette […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: June 20, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
FOMC Commentary – June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today confirmed the current monetary policy, keeping the target Fed Funds rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range and continuing to reduce the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries and agency debt (“the balance sheet.”)
Economic Commentary – June 16, 2025
One of the practical implications of an economy that is growing at 1% versus an economy growing at 2-2.5% is that a more slowly growing economy tips into negative territory far more readily, with attendant implications for employment, earnings, and tax revenues. Thus far in the second quarter of 2025, the data persistently indicates that the US economy is growing at a pace greater […]
Economic Commentary – June 9, 2025
The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the uneasy tenor of the current moment is the apparent difficulty the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having in getting its monthly survey of nonfarm payrolls […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: June 6, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil prices, the US Dollar, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index, and employment.
Economic Commentary – June 2, 2025
Amidst all the confusion as to which US tariffs are in place, which are in deferment and which have never come into being — not to mention which retaliatory actions by US trading partners are in effect, or threatened—- it is not entirely surprising that inflation has not been the big story that was anticipated. […]