Investment Commentary – June 30, 2025
In the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up ~10%. The U.S. dollar has had one of its worst starts to a year on record. It is on pace to fall approximately 8% in Q2 alone. Almost every asset class is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. To put the first half of 2025 simply, […]
Investment Commentary – June 23, 2025
What Happened Geopolitics took center stage last week as Israel and Iran continued to launch missiles at each other, culminating with the U.S. joining the war with strategic strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Markets had initially taken the Israel-Iran hostilities in stride, rallying early in the week. However, as the possibility of […]
Investment Commentary – June 16, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks were down and bonds up (price up/yield down). The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, healthcare, and utilities. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, large-cap value did the best, and the value factor […]
Corporate Earnings Off to a Solid Start in 2025
June 17, 2025 – The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and global […]
Investment Commentary – June 9, 2025
Executive Summary U.S. stocks closed within ~2% of their all-time highest level since February 2025, lifted by a combination of resilient jobs data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Bond Yields climbed as investors recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve policy, following economic signals that eased fears of an imminent slowdown and fluctuating levels […]
Investment Commentary – June 2, 2025
Executive Summary For the month of May, the S&P 500 returned over 6%, its best monthly performance since November 2023. Financial markets have weathered two months of policy-driven volatility, only to end up roughly where they started. After a nearly 20% decline from late February to early April, the S&P 500 has regained most of […]
Investment Commentary – May 27, 2025
Executive Summary Equities, bonds and the dollar all retreated last week amid renewed focus on the U.S. budget deficit and rising debt. Fresh tariff threats were also a reminder that trade developments remain, as evidenced by the equity markets’ decline and recovery in response to the threat and “kick the can” headlines related to European […]
Financial advisors taking little mind of Moody’s US downgrade
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Investment Commentary – May 19, 2025
Executive Summary The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose above 5.00% on an intra-day basis 5/19.25 – which is close to 2023’s cyclical high, triggered, in part, by a weak Treasury bond auction, which signaled the supply of Treasuries due to increasing budget deficits was weighing on the market. The bond market may be starting to […]
Understanding the Difference Between Soft and Hard Economic Data
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Investment Commentary – May 12, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, the markets closed on a cautious note, with both stocks and bonds fluctuating amid anticipation of renewed trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Investors showed restraint, avoiding riskier positioning amid speculation that, while the upcoming discussions between Chinese and American officials might mark a diplomatic thaw, a meaningful agreement […]
Investment Commentary – May 5, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned +2.9% to complete a stunning rebound and recover all losses since “Liberation Day” (April 2). News of increased diplomacy with China on trade, and a jobs report that showed a labor market that is cooling but resilient, calmed markets. While the GDP report showed that the economy contracted in the […]