Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025
Timing is everything, so the saying goes. Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just about anything, in co-conspiracy with the ability of statistics to do the same. As world economies march towards May, serious questions about the relevant time […]
Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025
It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake, to which the Trump tariff announcements bear a considerable resemblance, a series of aftershocks continues to rattle consumers, businesses, and markets. However, unlike an earthquake, all […]
Ten Charts to Think About Instead of Taxes
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025
The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession as the base case forecast; I do not understand how it cannot. Yet few forecasters are saying that they expect a recession this year — yet. […]
Market Recap: April 3, 2025
Watch Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz discuss the recent tariffs announcement and its impact on markets.
Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025
This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide variety of products and trading partners. At the same time, previously imposed trade actions (especially steel and aluminum tariffs), federal employment reductions, and federal health […]
Q1 2025 Economic Recap
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
FOMC Commentary – March 19, 2025
FOMC Interest Rate Announcement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Fed Chairman Powell Press Conference There were a few surprises in the Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate decision this morning. The top line number – the Fed Funds target rate—was left unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, as expected. However, the less visible but certainly significant decision to […]
Powell’s ‘Biggest Tell’ on Where Rates are Going
January 31, 2025 – Jeanette Garretty says the Fed was “very confident” after their decision to pause rate cuts this week. She says Powell’s “biggest tell” is his repeated mention that Fed policy is still restrictive and thinks they will cut again when they can. She discusses the potential economic impacts of the proposed tariffs. […]
FOMC Commentary – January 29, 2025
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced today it would leave the target Feds Funds interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Although financial markets expressed some mild disappointment that rates were being held steady, the announcement was widely anticipated. Much has been written about today’s FOMC Interest Rate Decision, marking the […]
2025 and Beyond: Investment and Wealth Planning Outlook Webinar
Jan 24, 2025 – Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz and Head of Wealth Planning Mallon FitzPatrick have a conversation moderated by Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty as they offer their perspective on markets and wealth planning. Disclosures Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not […]
Home Is Where the Heart Is
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist January 14, 2025 – Economists, lenders and policy analysts are given to talking about the US housing market in notably clinical terms. A blizzard of monthly data on, for example, “housing starts,” “building permits,” and “new home sales” (from the US Census Bureau), “existing home sales” (from the National […]