Investment Commentary – September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The economy appears to remain resilient, and the Fed is cutting rates in the middle of an economy that is slowing but still expanding. Historically, such conditions have been bullish for risk assets. According to Franklin Templeton, in the last 50 years, there have been eight instances where the Fed resumed cutting interest […]
U.S. Government Shutdowns and Risk Markets
US Federal Government Shutdowns Some of the federal government’s activities are set to shut down if Congress cannot agree to fund them by October 1, 2025 What is a government shutdown? A shutdown occurs when non-essential federal government activities close temporarily because Congress has not approved funding to keep them open. There have been 10 […]
Investment Commentary – September 22, 2025
Executive Summary The Fed cut interest rates as expected by 0.25% to 4.25%. The market response was bullish for riskier assets but did not do much for bonds. The bond market was pricing in 3 cuts before year-end, prior to the meeting, and three after, then into next year, the bond market is pricing in […]
Corporate Bond Trade-Offs: Attractive Income, Limited Cushion
September 17, 2025 – Corporate credit spreads are at levels not seen in decades. Investment-grade credit spreads, which measure how much more a top-rated company pays to borrow compared to the U.S. government, have fallen to 0.77%, a level last seen in 1998 (Figure 1). Historically, the spread is closer to 1.30%, a half percentage […]
Investment Commentary – September 8, 2025
Executive Summary Financial markets have weathered months of policy-driven volatility, and after a nearly 20% decline, the S&P 500 has regained all its losses and set numerous all-time highs. What remains is a sharply higher effective tariff rate and uncertainty about the impact of 2026 corporate earnings, consumer demand, and economic growth. While easing tensions […]
August Recap: Stocks Trade Higher as Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cut
Monthly Market Summary Federal Reserve Prepares to Cut Interest Rates as the Labor Market Softens The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged this year due to concerns that tariffs could reignite inflation. This concern, along with strong job growth and low unemployment, gave the central bank time to wait for more data. However, the […]
Investment Commentary – September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 closed out August near an all-time high, defying consensus commentary that was pessimistic. Coming into the month, many investors were bracing for seasonal weakness, the onset of new tariffs, elevated valuations, compressed credit spreads, and commentary related to the Federal Reserve’s independence. What drove the resilience? U.S. economic growth remained firm, […]
How Withdrawal Rates Impact Your Portfolio in Retirement
August 26, 2025 – Many people spend years preparing for retirement by saving and investing, but planning shouldn’t stop once the paychecks do. Transitioning from earning income to withdrawing it from your portfolio is a major shift with a new set of risks and decisions. This period, known as the distribution phase, requires careful thought. […]
Investment Commentary – August 25, 2025
Executive Summary Rising corporate earnings and expectations of lower policy rates are positive for risk-asset markets. Many asset-market valuations are not appealing, but risk-on is likely to persist until earnings are challenged by a weakening economy, or long-term government bond yields potentially break out to the upside (price down/yield up) due to unanchored inflation expectations, increasing […]
Investment Commentary – August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It’s an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and […]
Investment Commentary – August 11, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned +2.4% as markets focused on strong corporate earnings results and looked past the disappointing economic data from the previous week. Markets looked past several data points which may ordinarily have given it pause: a weak ISM Services print, rising yields due to weak auction demand for 10-year and 30-year treasuries, […]
July Recap: Reflecting on the YTD Market Volatility & Recovery
Monthly Market Summary Key Market Themes Trade De-Escalation Boosts Risk Appetite. July saw meaningful trade de-escalation as Washington reached separate agreements with Japan and the EU. The frameworks set tariffs at 15% on most exports, along with still-undefined additional investments in the U.S. The trade deals boosted risk appetite and helped the S&P 500 set […]