Labor’s Long Evolution: Productivity, Prosperity, and the Future of Work
A good chart raises as many questions as it provides answers. This one is no exception. Numerous developments across this same 1979-to-present time period have occurred that may have something to say about the picture (which, by the way, is a picture that has been painted quite consistently by other data and other researchers). The first generation IBM Personal Computer was released in August 1981. In the 1980s, it became apparent that the creation of value (production of goods and services) in technology sectors was less labor-intensive than other industries. In the 1990s, stock options moved out of the executive suite and into regular worker compensation in technology, finance, and select other industries and occupations, supplementing hourly pay and salaries. Union membership peaked in 1979 at approximately 25% of the labor force — with indirect influence on as much as an additional quarter to one-third of workers— and fell steadily over the ensuing 4 decades. US labor force growth slowed from roughly 2.5% at the start of the 1980s to near zero today, while at the same time, US corporate profitability rose more than 6% on average and the corporate profits share of GDP rose from approximately 7% to more than 13% in 2025. The productivity of American workers has consistently been credited with the dominant economic growth and relatively low inflation of the US economy compared to other developed economies in the world, and so the question looms large today: Will this pattern continue, what will it require and how does the American workforce best benefit from its critical role in economic expansion?
Warsh Draws a Line: Inflation Fight Back in Focus
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to take back a bit of control over the interest rate narrative. He successfully communicated — for the first time during his short tenure — his views on the economy and his concerns about inflation. Probably the most interesting part of the speech for bond traders was his reluctance to use the modest improvements in recent US inflation numbers as an argument for having patience with the current approximately 3.5% pace of price increases. For others, his amazingly clear statement that “monetary policy cannot easily be described as restrictive” was long-awaited insight into his thinking about monetary policy (and a reminder of the hawkish policy stances he was once widely known for.)
Jackson Hole Under the Spotlight: Can the Fed Restore Confidence?
The speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on the last full day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is always a highly anticipated event. This year it arguably carries more immediate significance than usual, as Chairman Warsh’s words will be delivered in the shadow of both his previous FOMC press conference and the recent actions of Secretary Scott Bessent— neither of which was particularly well received by global bond markets. 30-year Treasury yields often serve as a vote on the credibility of both Warsh and Bessent and will be closely watched throughout the week.
Five Charts for the Week that Was: August 21, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including first time home buyers, housing affordability, gas sales, the “Fed put”, and British business investments.
Strong Economy, Sour Mood: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling the Boom
Consumer inflation decelerated slightly in July, new jobless claims are running well below the levels of 2025, third quarter US economic growth is estimated at approximately 3.5% and average hourly earnings are growing 3.2%. Additionally, the S&P 500 hit a new market high last Thursday, August 13. One would think that all is good but . . . the consumer says otherwise. The day after that new S&P high, the preliminary Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment for August fell almost 8%, returning to the lower levels of consumer confidence that became evident in the spring of 2025.
Week of August 09, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The “K-shaped economy” is back in the news, mostly as a result of the attempts by government officials to deny it exists. Some economists are sympathetic to the frustration over the use of the phrase, which popped onto the scene early in the pandemic shutdown. Originally, it was intended to describe an economic recovery pattern […]
Five Charts for the Week that Was: August 7, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including first time home buyers, housing affordability, gas sales, the “Fed put”, and British business investments.
Week of August 02, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released considerable, albeit preliminary, data on the US economy in the second quarter and much of the story got lost in the glare of Kevin Warsh’s problematic second press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The first estimate of US Q2 GDP growth was 1.5%, somewhat below expectations […]
FOMC Commentary – July 29, 2026
In a move consistent with his dislike for excessive detail, the FOMC announcement that the target Fed Funds rate would remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% was extremely brief.
Week of July 27, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
In light of the new tariffs imposed by President Trump and the sharp increase in the price of oil (Brent was above $100 this weekend but has fallen equally sharply to start the week), questions about Federal Reserve policy have flared again. Nothing has changed in the original calculus that has encouraged the Federal Reserve […]
Ten Charts for the Week that Was: Webinar Bonus Edition
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including first time home buyers, housing affordability, gas sales, the “Fed put”, and British business investments.
2026 Mid Year Economic and Investment Outlook Webinar
Tune in as Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz break down what happened in the first half of the year and provide their outlook for the rest of the year. They share insights on today’s investment landscape and how we’re positioning portfolios to help clients navigate changing market conditions with confidence.