FOMC Commentary – December 10, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps, with the Fed Funds target range now 3.5%-3.75%. This rate cut is not expected to significantly impact economic activity, which is currently expanding at a 2.5%-3.0% pace.
Economic Momentum Builds as Companies Shift Focus to 2026
Lessened concern about consumer spending weakness in December, and optimism about end-of-year economic growth, risks overlooking the intense focus of American business on 2026 profitability. Adjustments to the global trade changes introduced by tariff policy and other actions continue to unfold, and labor force decisions for the first half of the coming year — always top-of-mind […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: December 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including holiday shopping, gas prices, and electricity costs.
Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect
Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role played by changes in wealth. Retirement accounts and home equity constitute more than 60% of US Household wealth and these two important components of wealth, like […]
September Metrics Establish Baseline Amid Limited Government Reporting
Economic data for September continues to gush out like water at the end of a fire hose. The problem seems to be that September feels like a LONG time ago. Nevertheless, reports on September employment (last week), and Producer Prices and Retail Sales (both this week), help to establish the base on which the economy is […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: November 21, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including unemployment claims, payroll employment growth, federal tax refunds, trade deficit, and money supply vs. inflation.
A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]
From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown
There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but also the grocers and farmers who supply the food that would be purchased with the SNAP monies. Federal worker incomes are the lifeblood of many […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: November 7, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including home insurance, rare earths, credit card delinquencies, gold, and apartment rent.
Watching the Data: Growth Holds, Labor Questions Remain
In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic strength. Fed Chairman Powell’s discussion of dissent on the FOMC regarding the future path for interest rates ( or, more accurately, the speed of future interest […]
FOMC Commentary – October 29, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the Federal Funds rate target range by 25bps, from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%. The context provided for this move was as important as the interest rate cut itself, slowing employment growth but continued inflation at levels “somewhat” higher than desirable.
Economic Commentary – October 27, 2025
It’s back to Trump Time, it’s Trade Time, All The Time. A successful tour of Asia to negotiate favorable trade deals would go a long way toward easing the concerns of the Federal Reserve — and the US business community — about the negative impacts on economic growth from trade confrontation. There is also the issue […]