The Middle East Conflict
by Lauren Sigman, CFP® and Dan Arcos, CFA® October 9, 2023 Summary of the Conflict Early Saturday, Hamas launched an invasion of Israel. There are reports that Hamas operatives used bulldozers to take down parts of the border barrier between Gaza and Israel, catching the Israeli military by surprise. Hamas also launched rockets at various […]
Awful Headlines
October 9, 2023 Good morning, The events in the Middle East are dominating headlines and have impacted financial markets to a reasonable degree. Buying crude is the knee-jerk response whenever tensions rise in the region, and sure enough oil is up sharply on the day. However, that market response isn’t as significant as that of […]
At Least The Sentiment Setup Is In Place
October 5, 2023 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index’s 8% decline from its July 31st high has had an unfamiliar companion – at least for the past 25 years – rising bond yields. For much of the past quarter century, rising bond yields have been bullish for stocks because it meant deflationary forces were becoming […]
No Sign of a Relief Rally – That’s When They Show Up
October 2, 2023 Good morning, No shutdown this weekend – that leans okay, you would think. It appears not to be, given this morning’s weakness in Futures prices (down 1% from overnight highs and down .20% from Friday’s close). The U.S. government has averted a spending shutdown in circumstances too contorted to bear repeating. Markets are […]
What Is The Question
September 28, 2023 Good morning, The market in S&P 500 Index (SPX) terms has fallen -5.35% in 9 trading days. The market feels like it is taking the elevator shaft down after months of taking escalators upward. We talked about this – it does not feel good. However, feelings need to be isolated from market […]
Budget Battle Correction
September 25, 2023 Good morning, Fear is a stronger emotion than greed, and markets fall faster than they climb. The adage that markets go up on an escalator and fall through an elevator shaft is good to remember during swift declines like last week’s. In round numbers, U.S. equity indexes were off -3% last week, […]
Hawkish Pause – Resumption of Correction
September 21, 2023 Good morning, As widely expected, the Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” yesterday. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) left the fed funds target unchanged, at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The statement and press conference reinforced Powell’s Jackson Hole speech of restriction for longer. The Dot plot (the chart of FOMC […]