Quarterly Update: A Soft Landing into a Hard World
January 12, 2024 – I suspect few will mourn the end of 2023. The year that started with deep concerns over the economy and ended with geopolitical turmoil saw few happy headlines. Despite the turmoil, the US economy had a surprisingly strong year, even as Europe and China struggled to regain their footing. This, in […]
Quieter Market / Gundlach Highlights
January 11, 2023 Good morning, The equity market has worked steadily higher so far this week, erasing much of last week’s decline. The S&P 500 Index is sitting right on top of its all-time high. Volatility is off its peak and things have quieted down from that blistering year-end pace. Market wise, there isn’t much […]
Strong Tapes Are Why First Corrections Are Normally Light
January 8, 2024 Good morning, The first week of the year was a down one for stocks, bonds, oil, and gold. Only the dollar and volatility moved higher. The S&P 500 Index was off -1.52% for the first down week since October. Yikes, that’s a long stretch and that sentence underscores the technical strength the […]
Meeting Notes Had No Effect On The Gap
January 4, 2024 Good morning, Following a blistering last two months of the year, with oversold sirens blaring, investors of all kinds were bracing for a correction to welcome in the new year. Perhaps that’s why the -1.36% decline on the S&P 500 Index so far this year feels so much worse than its absolute […]
Probably Ahead of Itself
January 2, 2024 Good morning, I hope your holidays were special and that your Happiest New Year is ahead for you. The stock and bond markets ended 2023 with 9 straight weeks of a rally driven primarily by the Fed’s pivot from a tightening to a neutral bias. The markets have translated the Fed’s mid-December […]
Just A One Off … For Now
December 21, 2023 Good morning, The equity market threw investors a curve ball yesterday. With only 90 minutes left in the trading day, the S&P 500 was predictably up +0.5% with bonds enjoying another intra-day rally of their own. And then, without any obvious catalyst (headline, company announcement, data release), S&P 500 Futures plunged -2% […]