August Leaderboard Rattled By Inflation and AI Risks
Strong earnings, broad market participation, and resilient economic growth have supported equities, but rising Treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and elevated valuations could shape the next phase of market performance.
Labor’s Long Evolution: Productivity, Prosperity, and the Future of Work
A good chart raises as many questions as it provides answers. This one is no exception. Numerous developments across this same 1979-to-present time period have occurred that may have something to say about the picture (which, by the way, is a picture that has been painted quite consistently by other data and other researchers). The first generation IBM Personal Computer was released in August 1981. In the 1980s, it became apparent that the creation of value (production of goods and services) in technology sectors was less labor-intensive than other industries. In the 1990s, stock options moved out of the executive suite and into regular worker compensation in technology, finance, and select other industries and occupations, supplementing hourly pay and salaries. Union membership peaked in 1979 at approximately 25% of the labor force — with indirect influence on as much as an additional quarter to one-third of workers— and fell steadily over the ensuing 4 decades. US labor force growth slowed from roughly 2.5% at the start of the 1980s to near zero today, while at the same time, US corporate profitability rose more than 6% on average and the corporate profits share of GDP rose from approximately 7% to more than 13% in 2025. The productivity of American workers has consistently been credited with the dominant economic growth and relatively low inflation of the US economy compared to other developed economies in the world, and so the question looms large today: Will this pattern continue, what will it require and how does the American workforce best benefit from its critical role in economic expansion?