Investment Commentary – March 24, 2025
What Happened US equity markets finished the week up after four consecutive weeks of negative returns. Markets were focused on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which showed that the Fed expected slightly slower economic growth and slightly higher inflation. However, Chairman Powell calmed market fears at the news conference after the FOMC meeting, where […]
Economic Commentary – March 24, 2025
With the Trump Administration’s “major” reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be announced — and possibly take effect— on April 2, the focus is increasingly on the possible production and employment impacts of tariffs. The Administration itself has warned that there will be an “adjustment” period for the economy, and it is the nature of those adjustments, as perhaps […]
Are You a High Earner But Still Broke? Five Fixes for That
March 24, 2025 If you’re a HENRY (a higher earner, not rich yet) but feel like you still live paycheck to paycheck, there are steps you can take to get control of your financial future. As published in Kiplinger HENRYs, or high earners, not rich yet, are professionals who earn significant income but struggle to […]
FOMC Commentary – March 19, 2025
FOMC Interest Rate Announcement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Fed Chairman Powell Press Conference There were a few surprises in the Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate decision this morning. The top line number – the Fed Funds target rate—was left unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, as expected. However, the less visible but certainly significant decision to […]
A Nice Bounce But No “All’s-Clear” Sign (Yet)
March 17, 2025 Good morning, Friday’s +2.13% rally on the S&P 500 Index was a welcome relief. It was typical for what we get after the S&P 500 draws down by 10% from its highs, though Friday’s bounce usually takes a week rather than a day to play out. Considering that this 10% correction was […]
Investment Commentary – March 17, 2025
What Happened The S&P 500 fell into “correction” territory (a drop of 10% from a recent peak) as markets continue to worry that uncertainties and potential inflation due to tariffs and the administration’s heavy-handed job and spending cuts will weigh on economic growth and, in turn, on corporate earnings. Wall Street analysts have begun reducing […]
Economic Commentary – March 17, 2025
A consensus is growing that the first quarter’s economic growth has slowed to 1%, possibly less. As would be expected, this has taken some of the heat out of the inflation fire, making the Federal Reserve’s job considerably more straightforward (“easier” is not the word I would choose to use.) However, the effects of recent US […]
Unjustified – March 14, 2025
March 14, 2025 Good morning, It’s been another tough week (thus far) for U.S. equities, less so for the non-U.S kind. The U.S. equity centered correction continues. So far this week, the major U.S. equity indices are off another 4%-ish, and their non-U.S. counterparts are down about half that amount. The question of correction-or-worse (bear […]
How Did You Enjoy The Play Mrs… – March 10, 2025
March 10, 2025 Good morning, There is some more market weakness this morning (Futures off -1.40%) on DJT’s weekend mention of a transition period for the U.S. economy. It is being interpreted as a euphemism for a recession. It also suggests that he is willing to accept a period of economic underperformance in pursuit of policy goals, […]
In Line Probably Not Enough To Stem The Correction Tide
March 7, 2025 Good morning, It has been a rough, volatile week so far for U.S. equity indices: S&P 500 Index -3.61%, NASDAQ -4.12%, Russell 2K -4.43% on the week through last night’s close. It is almost a perfect mirror image for International Indices – just put a plus sign in front of the U.S. […]
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Still Whistling Past But With A Limp
March 3, 2025 Good morning, Investors have felt nervous and uncertain since the inauguration. Markets didn’t begin to reflect that uncertainty until last week when the equity market volatility index (VIX) climbed above that “Fear” threshold of 20. Friday’s late afternoon parabolic rally in stocks (the S&P 500 Index ended the day +1.59%) relieved a […]