Week of June 07, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
US job growth in May was unexpectedly strong. Although the Federal Reserve says it continues to worry about the downside on US labor markets, it’s the upside on inflation commanding all the attention. More specifically, consumer inflation expectations are the concern. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and global tariffs may be transitory (a now […]
Week of May 31, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Confidence in the durability of US labor markets seems to be rising, despite the extreme anxiety in many quarters over the role of artificial intelligence. Recent speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents have indicated that the emerging role of AI is undeniable but its near term effect on both jobs and productivity […]
Week of May 24, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Have rising bond yields forced action on the Strait of Hormuz when rising consumer inflation rates couldn’t? If so, it wouldn’t be the first time that bond markets flexed their muscles, and it won’t be the last. Many observers believe that a moderation of the sweeping and sometimes nonsensical US tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” last April was attributable to an […]
Week of May 17, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The world may not be awash in oil and gas right now, but there is a healthy supply of ministerial- level meetings discussing the oil and gas problem. Most of these meetings have concluded and will conclude that the situation with the Strait of Hormuz is awful . . . and that there is nothing […]
Week of May 10, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The healthy US job growth reported on May 8— not only the 115,000 net new jobs created but also the distribution of those jobs across a number of economic sectors — has had the effect of shining all the bright light on inflation trends and potential fiscal policy cures for rising prices. As has been previously mentioned, […]
Week of May 03, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
GDP growth and consumer inflation figures released last week for both the Euro Area and the United States effectively told a tale of two different economies — both at war but experiencing the conflict in dissimilar fashion. US economic growth seems quite solid (Jerome Powell’s words were “amazingly resilient”), with inflation once again a worrisome problem. European economic […]
Week of April 26, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
April ends with a flurry of important economic numbers and a heavy dose of Federal Reserve drama. The current range of estimates for first quarter US GDP growth is a fairly wide 1%-2.5% and anything close to 2% will be considered a quite good number. When the preliminary estimate for GDP growth is posted on Thursday, it will […]
Week of April 19, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Euro Area inflation was 2.6% in March on a year-over-year basis, striking some observers as a surprisingly benign number given Europe’s considerable exposure to higher oil and natural gas prices. After all, US inflation in March rose 3.3%. The European measure of inflation most comparable to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is known as […]
Week of April 12, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
There is simply no way to spin this: the “affordability” metrics are ugly and likely to get uglier in the next two months. Inflation in the United States is running above 3% at the moment, a development that may indeed be “transitory” but nevertheless remains dispiriting and painful. In Europe, the magnitude of the upward push on prices from the […]
Week of April 5, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond market giant PIMCO, has a useful, intuitive way of thinking about exogenous shocks, i.e. unexpected events with unpredictable timing that occur outside of the normal framework of industries and national economies. He posits that there are three phases: An initial Phase One of, in the case of the Iranian War, […]
Week of March 08, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
War always creates economic turmoil. It changes prices, adds to national debt and heightens uncertainty. As such, war may impact economic decision-making even in markets not apparently directly affected by combat. One example of such effect may be provided by the US housing market, where rumors of a recovery have, in the last 12 months, too often proved to be just […]
Week of February 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
“Head-spinning” is the word for the week. The Supreme Court rejection of many (not all) of President Trump’s tariffs served to sweep under the rug an almost embarrassing scramble to explain how the fourth quarter GDP estimate came in so far below projections, while the broad-based measure of inflation known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures […]