Week of May 10, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The healthy US job growth reported on May 8— not only the 115,000 net new jobs created but also the distribution of those jobs across a number of economic sectors — has had the effect of shining all the bright light on inflation trends and potential fiscal policy cures for rising prices. As has been previously mentioned, […]
Week of May 03, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
GDP growth and consumer inflation figures released last week for both the Euro Area and the United States effectively told a tale of two different economies — both at war but experiencing the conflict in dissimilar fashion. US economic growth seems quite solid (Jerome Powell’s words were “amazingly resilient”), with inflation once again a worrisome problem. European economic […]
Week of April 26, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
April ends with a flurry of important economic numbers and a heavy dose of Federal Reserve drama. The current range of estimates for first quarter US GDP growth is a fairly wide 1%-2.5% and anything close to 2% will be considered a quite good number. When the preliminary estimate for GDP growth is posted on Thursday, it will […]
Week of April 19, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Euro Area inflation was 2.6% in March on a year-over-year basis, striking some observers as a surprisingly benign number given Europe’s considerable exposure to higher oil and natural gas prices. After all, US inflation in March rose 3.3%. The European measure of inflation most comparable to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is known as […]
Week of April 12, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
There is simply no way to spin this: the “affordability” metrics are ugly and likely to get uglier in the next two months. Inflation in the United States is running above 3% at the moment, a development that may indeed be “transitory” but nevertheless remains dispiriting and painful. In Europe, the magnitude of the upward push on prices from the […]
Week of April 5, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond market giant PIMCO, has a useful, intuitive way of thinking about exogenous shocks, i.e. unexpected events with unpredictable timing that occur outside of the normal framework of industries and national economies. He posits that there are three phases: An initial Phase One of, in the case of the Iranian War, […]
Week of March 08, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
War always creates economic turmoil. It changes prices, adds to national debt and heightens uncertainty. As such, war may impact economic decision-making even in markets not apparently directly affected by combat. One example of such effect may be provided by the US housing market, where rumors of a recovery have, in the last 12 months, too often proved to be just […]
Week of February 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
“Head-spinning” is the word for the week. The Supreme Court rejection of many (not all) of President Trump’s tariffs served to sweep under the rug an almost embarrassing scramble to explain how the fourth quarter GDP estimate came in so far below projections, while the broad-based measure of inflation known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures […]
Week of February 15, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Although data released this week will largely be for the end of 2025, the data will serve to flesh out the picture hinted at by the Nonfarm Employment and Consumer Price Index numbers for January: a US economy that is doing considerably better than expected in terms of both growth and inflation. The most recent estimate […]
With Warsh at the Fed, Markets Shift Focus to Fiscal Leadership
Donald Trump has nominated his new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The choice is largely considered a sensible one, validated by most of Wall Street, global financial markets and other central bankers. Coming on the heels of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was notable for its lack of surprises, and for encouraging statements about the US economy, one can sense a collective sigh […]
Shutdown Risks and a Fed Decision: Markets on Alert
Congress moves unexpectedly back into the economic picture, as talk of a partial government shutdown on Friday has re-emerged with power and possibility. If investors thought that the only news hitting them this week would be just another boring Federal Reserve meeting, the fight over Department of Homeland Security funding should spice things up nicely. […]
Rethinking ‘Data‑Driven’: Why Friedman’s Long‑View Philosophy Matters Again
Slightly more than a week before a critical Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the outlook on prices has been muddied once again by uncertainty over tariffs. Potential fiscal policy actions involving credit card rate caps, oil price manipulation, or home buyer subsidies have also been disruptive. The best way for monetary policy authorities to think […]