Strong Tapes Are Why First Corrections Are Normally Light
January 8, 2024 Good morning, The first week of the year was a down one for stocks, bonds, oil, and gold. Only the dollar and volatility moved higher. The S&P 500 Index was off -1.52% for the first down week since October. Yikes, that’s a long stretch and that sentence underscores the technical strength the […]
Meeting Notes Had No Effect On The Gap
January 4, 2024 Good morning, Following a blistering last two months of the year, with oversold sirens blaring, investors of all kinds were bracing for a correction to welcome in the new year. Perhaps that’s why the -1.36% decline on the S&P 500 Index so far this year feels so much worse than its absolute […]
Probably Ahead of Itself
January 2, 2024 Good morning, I hope your holidays were special and that your Happiest New Year is ahead for you. The stock and bond markets ended 2023 with 9 straight weeks of a rally driven primarily by the Fed’s pivot from a tightening to a neutral bias. The markets have translated the Fed’s mid-December […]
Just A One Off … For Now
December 21, 2023 Good morning, The equity market threw investors a curve ball yesterday. With only 90 minutes left in the trading day, the S&P 500 was predictably up +0.5% with bonds enjoying another intra-day rally of their own. And then, without any obvious catalyst (headline, company announcement, data release), S&P 500 Futures plunged -2% […]
Mallon FitzPatrick on FA Magazine
January 8, 2024 – Principal and Managing Director, Mallon FitzPatrick was featured in Financial Advisor Magazine to discuss ‘Supreme Court Weighs Giving Green Light To Wealth Tax.’ “If the Supreme Court upholds the constitutionality of a tax on accumulated foreign earnings, then it could be interpreted as a tax on unrealized income,” FitzPatrick said. “Republicans are concerned that an […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
January 7, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak Australia to discuss her key takeaways from the US jobs data and outlook for the US economy. “The jobs report was a good jobs report,” says Garretty. “The wage growth was a little bit hotter than expected, but the Fed has said all along […]
Jeanette Garretty on Yahoo! Finance
December 27, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Yahoo! Finance to discuss holiday retail sales. “The Trends seen in recent consumer spending patterns and the data that may serve as a ‘check engine light’ in 2024,” says Garretty. “There is very little… economic evidence that consumer sentiment directly feeds into those near-term spending patterns […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Radio
December 21, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia to discuss the US economic outlook. “I think it’s a point that we have long wanted to be at a point of actually greater certainty about what the outlook is for basic economic conditions,” says Garretty. “But there is a third inflection point going […]
Quick Takes Are Slow To Give Back
December 18, 2023 Good morning, Markets have moved quickly from pricing in the bearish narrative “higher for longer” during the three months of August through October, to pricing in the bullish narrative “early and often” over the past two months. Meanwhile, since August, the Fed has moved from a tightening bias to a neutral bias. […]
Oof!
December 14, 2023 Good morning, Color me wrong! On Monday, I commented that the market set-up going into yesterday’s FOMC meeting was likely bearish in the belief that participants could not contort an unchanged Fed statement any further than they already had at the November meeting. What I missed was the change in Fed posture […]
Is More Contortion Possible
December 10, 2023 Good morning, Last Friday morning’s big event of the week – November employment data – was mixed and had something for both bulls and bears to argue with. Financial journalists thought last week’s news was good for investors in the soft-landing camp. You wouldn’t know that from looking at market behavior. The S&P […]
Here’s Why Financial Advisors Loved Charlie Munger
December 7, 2023 – Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz was featured in Barron’s ‘Here’s Why Financial Advisors Loved Charlie Munger.’ “I think many of us who are passionate about investing and markets will remember Charlie Munger for his grandfatherly wit and wisdom and what seemed to be an undercurrent of grumpiness,” Katz said. “What impressed me most was his […]