Hopefully Just An Overnight Overblown Spike In Fear – April 21, 2025
Good morning, Under the heading of “Careful What’s Wished For”, tariffs are not in the headlines this morning. Unfortunately, this morning’s financial markets headlines may be worse, and Donald Trump’s apparent desire to sack Jerome Powell has the dollar down, gold up, equities down, and a steeper yield curve (long-end yields up / prices down). […]
Happy Friday-ish – April 17, 2025
Good morning, Happy Friday on this Thursday of a holiday shortened week. Thanking God for one less day of market turmoil and personal angst may be more appropriate than usual since the reprieve is due to U.S. Exchanges’ observance of Good Friday. Yesterday, with authority, the market closed the case for the extension of the […]
Volatility Inching Lower / Normal Inching Higher – April 16, 2025
Good morning, Stocks were volatile yesterday. The VIX (volatility index) remained elevated but off a tick. Solid results from big banks lifted the S&P 500 Index up +1% at the opening bell. However those gains were wiped out on signals that the European Union and the U.S. made no progress in bridging trade differences. China […]
Volatility Does Mean-Revert – April 15, 2025
Good morning, A short note this morning. Equity price action yesterday felt almost composed after the opening gap higher. The Magnificent 7 pricing faded quite a bit, but price movement was modest compared to what we’ve seen over the previous week and a half. The VIX (the uncertainty index) is down by half from its […]
Ten Charts to Think About Instead of Taxes
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
One Day at a Time For Now – April 14, 2025
Good morning, Stocks bounced back last week; the S&P 500 Index was up +5.7% on the week, leaving it down -12.71% from its February high. Bonds did not bounce like stocks; they sold off all week as holders of all types scrambled to deleverage – 10yr Treasury yields were up +50 basis point to 4.5% […]
Did Nothing for Uncertainty – April 10, 2025
Good morning, Yesterday, under extraordinary pressure from the bond market, President Trump suspended his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on all countries not named China. That led to a historic surge in the stock market. The epic rally in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was among the top 10 percentage return days in the nearly […]
Spotlight Shifts – April 9, 2025
Good morning, As promised, President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have gone into effect. And in a bit of a script reversal from recent weeks, volatility and near-panic selling, reserved for the stock market lately, are thriving in the Treasury market this morning. Yield curves have steepened dramatically as most of the selling has been in longer […]
A Whole New Backdrop – Time to De-Risk – April 8, 2025
April 8, 2025 Good morning, For the last several weeks, we have been following the four steps to a bottoming process that the market undergoes when in a downtrend: oversold, rally, retest, and breadth thrusts. As mentioned last Friday morning, one of the rules of the process is that if a retest fails (a lower […]
Overshooting Expected – April 7, 2025
April 7, 2025 Good morning, U.S. investors went to bed last night bracing for another wave of selling on our shores this morning. The global futures market opened last night with Asian markets getting slammed and the S&P 500 Futures contract off another ~3.5%. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed on Friday afternoon down ~17.5% […]
Maybe a Sense of the Ultimate Damage to Markets – April 4, 2025
April 4, 2025 Good morning, Unfortunately, it is all too clear this morning that April 2 was, to quote Winston Churchill, “the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.” Early this morning, China announced extra 34% tariffs on U.S. goods. As of 7:30 am, Futures have declined ~4% in the 90 minutes since China’s […]
Markets reel as US tariffs stoke fear of ‘spiral of doom’ for growth
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was quoted in Reuters discussing the market reaction to the Trump Administration’s new tariffs. “People were talking earlier about whether clarity would boost the market,” said Garretty. Read more here: https://bit.ly/42sqsIV