Back to Normal? – April 30, 2025
Good morning, For the first time this month, this morning’s Morning Note feels largely unnecessary to me. Maybe the market is telling me to return to my usual twice/week cadence. Has normal returned to the markets, or are chaos and uncertainty just taking a break? There is no way of knowing for sure, but based […]
Investment Commentary – April 28, 2025
Executive Summary The “soft” negative survey data has yet to show up in the “hard” economic data. The U.S. Market preliminary manufacturing PMI came in above estimates at 50.7. The services side came in below estimates but still an expansionary 51.4. U.S. equities outperformed European stocks last week but are still underperforming by 17% YTD. […]
Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025
This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy ride, the trick being to buckle up and keep an eye on the month being reported. A majority of the data will continue to be […]
Unlikely White House Bailout – April 28, 2025
Good morning, Let’s get into the week ahead for markets because it’s a very big week on a number of fronts, excluding tariffs – which is so refreshing. Friday’s April employment number is an obvious focus. It is the freshest pulse reading on the economy. Wednesday’s Q1-25 GDP release will be quite interesting given the […]
Slogging Into Fridays – April 25, 2025
Good morning, Happy Friday! What a slog to get through these days. Stocks rallied, and Treasury yields fell yesterday after comments by a Federal Reserve official bolstered the still-long odds that the central bank would cut interest rates as early as June. Despite the rough start, it has been a rebound week for equities so […]
Hope Springs Eternal – April 23, 2025
Good morning, While it is not a good investment strategy, we all get to tip our hats this morning to hope. The three leading financial headlines this morning: *Trump Says He Has No Intention of Firing Fed Chief Powell *Trump Floats “Substantial” China Tariff Cuts in Trade Deal […]
US stocks nosedive as Trump harangues Powell
Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz was quoted in Reuters discussing market volatility following President Trump’s comments about Fed Chair Powell. “President Trump’s threat to fire Fed Chair Powell adds a new vector of uncertainty to the mix,” said Katz. “Right now, the market is feeling its way through the dark and doesn’t know quite how […]
So Wrong – April 22, 2025
Good morning, An unplanned Morning Note this morning. I got yesterday perfectly wrong. It’s difficult to build in expectations of more self-destructive behavior, and yesterday’s White House social media rant against the Fed Chair is just unadulterated self-destruction. Stocks, the dollar, and longer-dated Treasuries fell yesterday. After rallying +1% in the final minutes of the […]
Investment Commentary – April 21, 2025
Executive Summary Last week was another round of “headline roulette” where Trump claimed a trade deal with the EU was imminent (though he provided no details or timeline); Trump was more specific about a U.S.-Ukraine minerals accord, saying a deal would be signed in a week; Trump addressed Powell on social media, saying his removal […]
Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025
Timing is everything, so the saying goes. Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just about anything, in co-conspiracy with the ability of statistics to do the same. As world economies march towards May, serious questions about the relevant time […]
Hopefully Just An Overnight Overblown Spike In Fear – April 21, 2025
Good morning, Under the heading of “Careful What’s Wished For”, tariffs are not in the headlines this morning. Unfortunately, this morning’s financial markets headlines may be worse, and Donald Trump’s apparent desire to sack Jerome Powell has the dollar down, gold up, equities down, and a steeper yield curve (long-end yields up / prices down). […]
Happy Friday-ish – April 17, 2025
Good morning, Happy Friday on this Thursday of a holiday shortened week. Thanking God for one less day of market turmoil and personal angst may be more appropriate than usual since the reprieve is due to U.S. Exchanges’ observance of Good Friday. Yesterday, with authority, the market closed the case for the extension of the […]