No Change in Short and Long Term Market Narratives
June 13, 2024 Good morning, With the benefit of some time overnight to lend a very eventful Wednesday some perspective, it is evident that the market placed greater weight on the better-than-expected key inflation report (May Consumer Price data, CPI) in the morning than the afternoon Fed announcement (which had a hawkish lean to it). Both stocks […]
May 2024 Monthly Letter
The following is your May 2024 Robertson Stephens Monthly Performance Report. May was a good month for returns from both stocks and bonds, and if you look at the chart below, it was, for many indices, the mirror image of April’s all-asset correction. At the margin, technology outperformed its April losses in May. Note tech’s positive return […]
Seesawing Data and Opinion
June 10, 2024 Good morning, Once again, on Friday, the data got in the way of a building market narrative. May’s employment report showed sizable job gains exceeding the highest estimate from economists – same for average hourly earnings. Stocks handled the data surprise well, while bonds fell hard and wiped out almost all the […]
Quarterly Insights – July 2024: More New Highs for the S&P 500 in Q2
By John Lau July 1, 2024 – The S&P 500 experienced its first real dose of volatility early in the second quarter, but expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, solid economic growth and continued strong financial performance from AI-related tech companies ultimately pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs and the […]
Small Cap Q2 2024 Commentary
Love me or hate me, but please don’t ignore me! We are pleased by our performance over the past year and since inception. Our portfolio companies continue to thrive based on our analysis. They are all advancing their businesses in ways that we believe add exciting long-term value for shareholders. In 2024, however, the market’s […]
Threading The Needle?
June 6, 2024 Good morning, Weeks ago, amid the March correction, we talked about the market message at that time being constructive in the short-term (wks./mos.). So far, so good. It has not been a barn-burner rally, just a gradual move up and to the right (more right than up) on most major global equity […]
Maybe The Shortest Note On Record – Early Doldrums
June 3, 2024 Good morning, This month begins with the Fed in its quiet period, and stock and bond investors already counting down to the next Fed meeting nine days away. There is one key economic data dump between now and then – Friday morning’s May employment report. If Friday’s number is not rogue, and is […]
Another Quiet One?
May 28, 2024 Good morning, Following a quiet week – the S&P 500 Index was virtually unchanged on the week (+0.03%) – and a long holiday weekend, investors are beginning this holiday shortened week with a slight kick in their step. Both equity futures and Treasuries are trading slightly higher in the pre-market. That continues […]
A Pleasant Interruption To The Calm
May 23, 2024 Good morning, When I said quiet week in Monday’s Morning Note, I didn’t expect the markets to be this quiet. The S&P 500 Index (SPX – cash market NY) and its 24-hr sibling, the S&P 500 Futures contract (SPA – commodities market Chicago), have traded within a few points of last week’s close for […]
Dark Speck Way Out On The Horizon
May 20, 2024 Good morning, This week should be a quiet one with no U.S. economic data releases of consequence. There are plenty of Fed speakers trying to make headlines of their own this week, but with markets currently pricing in between 1-2 rate cuts by year-end, market movement is likely immune to Fed speak […]
You Go, David!
May 16, 2024 Good morning, Even though it is only Thursday morning, the important government economic data releases for the week are behind us. Investors had been prepared for another volatile week since the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) top the list of key inflation data points that the Fed has […]
April 2024 Monthly Letter
The following is your April 2024 Robertson Stephens Monthly Performance Report. With the benefit of seeing the first 4 days of trading in May, I can suggest that April was simply a correction for stocks and bonds. By definition, a correction is a pause in the prevailing bullish or bearish market trend. In the current […]