Let The Dreamer’s Dream
December 2, 2022 Good morning, From Wednesday’s MN: “Except for the true dreamers, few expect Jerome Powell to lighten his hawkish posture.” Well, let the Dreamer’s dream because JP did slightly soften his position from a month ago, and we know it took markets by surprise because the market reaction seemed much greater than the […]
A Pause That Refreshes?
November 30, 2022 Good morning, Unrest in China this past weekend was a sufficient catalyst to trigger some profit taking on Monday with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) down -1.5% on the day. There was little follow-through selling yesterday, which is a good sign that perhaps the forces of demand supporting our rally haven’t left […]
Stiff Global Headwinds This Morning
November 28, 2022 Good morning, I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving. It’s back to normal this week following the holiday and markets are being greeted by a stiff global headwind amid growing unrest in China over Covid restrictions. Futures are off about -.75% pre-market on supply-side risk concerns. Most markets around the world […]
Aha!
November 23, 2022 Good morning, From a technical perspective, bond yields declined again yesterday, and stocks reacted in kind by jumping up +1.36% on the S&P 500 Index. The S&P closed above 4000 again after being repelled from that round number resistance zone last week. (see the Bloomberg chart below for reference). The big bad 200 […]
A Leveled Global Playing Field Now
November 21, 2022 Good morning, Stocks and bonds in U.S. markets had a relatively quiet week last week with the S&P 500 Index sliding -0.61%, and the yield on the 10yr treasury going virtually unchanged (+1 bps). International markets continued rising as they played catch-up to domestic equities. For example, the international developed markets index […]
Short & Sweet Today
November 18, 2022 Good morning, This week is coming to a close with markets still on pause. Futures are up +0.90% in pre-market trading, and with that gain, puts the S&P 500 Index right on top of where it closed out last week. Bonds have been similarly quiet. Crude and the dollar are the only […]
Taking a Breather
November 16, 2022 Good morning, The market seems to be taking a breather so far this week – the S&P 500 is flat through last night’s close and Futures are about unchanged pre-market this morning. The Retail Sales data for last month was released this morning and there are a few signs that the consumer […]
Technical & Macro Day
November 14, 2022 Good morning, Despite the semi-holiday (bond market closed) on Friday, equities did get a little follow through to add to Thursday’s strong reaction (possible over-reaction) to a soft CPI number. For the week, the S&P 500 was up +5.93%. Our current rally, now almost a month old, has produced enough positive technical signals […]
Extraordinary-ish
November 11, 2022 Good morning, There was little about yesterday’s price action in stocks, bonds and currency markets that wasn’t extraordinary. What was not extraordinary was the miss in the CPI number – the fuse that lit up markets to begin with. The direction of yesterday’s price moves was probably all about the lower-than-expected CPI […]
Less Political Uncertainty Now – CPI is Next
November 9, 2022 Good morning, Historically, stocks have risen at a faster pace when Democratic presidents have had a check on their power from Congress (BCA Research). While the final election results have not been decided, the GOP appears to have narrowly gained control of the House. It’s too early to say for the Senate. […]
October 2022 Monthly Letter
After a bumpy start, the U.S. stock market went up at a blistering pace to end the month on a positive footing. Within the stock indexes, the real action was in the Dow Industrials, which jumped 13.95% last month, its biggest monthly gain since January 1976, its best October on record, and the 11th best […]
Half Way Though – On Life Support
November 7, 2022 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index was down -3.35% last week, which was the first half of what I have called the current rally’s testing period. Recall the 4 events of the 2-week testing period: the Fed comments last Wednesday, Jobs data last Friday, the mid-term election tomorrow and CPI data on […]