Markets Prefer Earnings to Escalation – February 20, 2026
Good morning, If equity markets could go more than a week without extraneous distractions from their core long-term value drivers—earnings and macroeconomics—we might better enjoy the benefits of a growing economy in a controlled inflation environment. It’s been just over a week of relatively clear air without much interruption (until yesterday), and the major equity […]
AI: Blessing, Curse, and Market Crosscurrents – February 17, 2026
Good morning, While the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index advanced to a new all-time high last week, most other major U.S. equity indices declined (non-U.S. markets were largely flat). The divergence continues. Much of the week’s selling pressure stemmed from rising concerns about AI-driven disruption — and not just within software. AI-enabled tools were launched […]
Volatility Picks Up, But No Warning Signals Yet – February 13, 2026
Good morning, Week by week, volatility has been edging higher. We’re seeing more frequent 1–2% swings in both directions across the major indices — a noticeable change from the steadier tone that characterized much of last year. Yesterday, U.S. equities tumbled as the tech-led selloff deepened. The S&P 500 fell -1.6%, while the Nasdaq and […]
Markets Regain Their Footing as a Data Deluge Looms – February 10, 2026
Good morning, Last week’s three-day pullback of just over 3% in equities—led by technology—was admittedly nerve-wracking, but in the end amounted to little more than a routine correction. That setback has now been largely erased, as the market narrative reverts to familiar themes: continued growth, contained inflation, international over domestic, and value over growth. The […]
A Mature Bull Market Faces a Noisy February – February 2, 2026
Good morning, A positive January for the S&P 500 (+1.4%) has historically boded well for the remainder of the year. In midterm years in particular, January strength has generally carried forward—though often with notable intra-year drawdowns (1966, 1998, and 2018 come to mind). Big picture, this bull market is mature and valuations are elevated, but […]
January’s Surprise Headlines — And What They Really Mean for Investors
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® February 1, 2026 – If it feels like January delivered an unusual concentration of unsettling headlines, you’re not imagining it. In just a few short weeks, investors were confronted with stories ranging from renewed tariff threats involving the EU, South Korea, and Canada, to geopolitical flashpoints such as the reported […]
A Calm January Despite Noisy Headlines – January 26, 2026
Good morning, The first three weeks of January have delivered more than their share of attention-grabbing headlines—from the White House, the weather, and moves in gold and currency markets. Yet none of this has meaningfully disrupted either stocks or bonds. With one week left in the month, equity markets are modestly higher across the board. […]
Markets Whipsawed by Tariffs—Then Back to Drift – January 23, 2026
Good morning, Happy Friday. This week began largely as expected following the holiday-weekend headlines around new tariffs tied to potential U.S. control of Greenland. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index fell just over 2%, alongside declines across all major U.S. equity indexes—the largest one-day drop since last April’s tariff tantrum. By the end of Tuesday, […]
Tariffs Back in Focus as Markets Reverse Early Gains – January 20, 2026
Good morning, A little more than halfway through January (56%), equity markets had been enjoying a welcome broadening of leadership into sectors not known for direct AI exposure (though nearly all sectors will ultimately be influenced by AI). More importantly, that expansion has coincided with persistently higher yields across the curve and a meaningful shift […]
A Sudden Detour from an Otherwise Orderly Market – January 12, 2026
Good morning, I expected to be writing about last week’s solid market performance, the start of earnings season, and the inflation data due this week—altogether, a market continuing its orderly ascent, led by AI, its adjacent beneficiaries, and the broader economy that increasingly rides their coattails. Instead, that narrative has been abruptly hijacked by the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: January 9, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil and non farm payroll employment.
Limbo – January 9, 2026
Good morning, December employment data released this morning came in slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, while other labor indicators were mixed—helping explain the bond market’s collective shrug. In the betting markets, the odds of a January rate cut have fallen to zero, and speculation that December’s cut may have […]