Passing the Baton: What Powers the Economy Into 2026
Welcome to 2026. The traditional image of the baby who brings in the new year seems modestly inappropriate as the US economy enters what, by many measures, represents the 198th month of an economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2009. There have indeed been quarters of negative growth during this time period, most notably during the spring […]
A Tired but Intact Trend to Start the Year – January 5, 2026
Good morning, Welcome to the new trading year—I hope your holidays were joyous. Few would have expected the year’s opening headlines to be dominated by the capture of Nicolás Maduro and developments in Venezuela. Markets, however, have largely shrugged. Aside from Venezuelan sovereign debt, activity has been limited. Energy markets are seeing increased inquiry, but […]
AI, Fed Rate Cuts and Stable Growth Power Stocks to New Highs in 2025
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® January 2, 2026 – The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high in the fourth quarter as economic data showed solid growth, the Fed met investor expectations and cut interest rates and massive investment in AI infrastructure continued apace, supporting expectations for continued economic and corporate earnings growth in 2026. […]
Small Cap Q4 2025 Commentary
Strong Results Continue 2025 was an excellent year for our investments and the fifth year out of six in which we beat the Russell 2000, the general small cap index. Performance, since inception, has been exceptional both relative to the small-cap index and compared with most public-market indexes. From the beginning, my goal has been […]
December 2025 Monthly Letter
Happy New Year! A year ago, few market prognosticators projected a third consecutive year of double-digit gains for the major equity indices in 2025. Many were still forecasting a recession that had eluded them in both 2023 and 2024. As it turned out, 2025 delivered a broad-based, all-asset bull market—surprisingly led by Gold (+64%) and […]
New Year’s Resolutions These Financial Advisors Want You to Make
Mallon FitzPatrick, Head of Wealth Planning at Robertson Stephens, was featured in Barron’s, sharing why today’s shifting job market demands larger cash buffers and greater spending discipline. As career transitions lengthen, he recommends planning for up to 18 months of liquidity and guarding against lifestyle creep—one of the most persistent threats to long-term wealth, regardless […]
Year-End Markets & Looking Ahead – December 29, 2025
Good morning, Just checking in this morning—holiday-tardy at that. We’re entering the final three trading days of 2025, likely on holiday-light volume. That follows a week in which most major equity indices edged higher, with the exception of small caps. For the week: the S&P 500 rose +1.41%, the Nasdaq Composite +1.23%, the Russell 2000 […]
A Tailwind, Not An Engine – December 22, 2025
Good morning, Happy Holidays, everyone! The dominant theme of the final two weeks of the year is vacation—and that matters for markets. It helps explain why Santa Claus rallies recur often enough to be more than folklore. None of these forces are guarantees, but together they form a credible structural and behavioral framework. Structural Market Drivers Behavioral […]
Flat Futures and Frayed Nerves – A Familiar December Setup – December 19, 2025
Good morning, Take a much better-than-expected year for equities—where most managed money has underperformed its benchmarks due to a lack of AI concentration—add a brief but sharp -4.8% pullback in mid-November, followed by a quick recovery, and then another -2.6% drop from last Friday through Wednesday, and you begin to understand why “nervousness” among investors […]
Risk-On Rally as the Fed Fine-Tunes Policy and Market Leadership Broadens
Executive Summary Last week, markets leaned risk-on as the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut and investors doubled down on the soft-landing narrative. Stocks wavered early but rallied after Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the S&P 500 and Dow moving back toward all-time highs. The Russell 2000 set record highs on consecutive days, and the […]
2025’s Unexpected Strength, 2026’s Unanswered Questions
As the year draws to a close, where do we find ourselves? Most likely, not where many of us thought we would be. Economic growth of 2.7-3%, inflation of 2.7-3%, a rising stock market, and falling interest rates… out-of-context (even in-context), this stands as a remarkably positive positioning for the start of 2026. The trade uncertainties that have […]
A Jolt to End the Week: Markets Recalibrate Ahead of Busy Data Stretch – December 15, 2025
Good morning, Friday’s market action delivered an unexpected jolt after an otherwise calm week. Oracle’s apparent stutter-step around massive AI spending—combined with renewed uncertainty over the Fed’s intentions and leadership—set a clear risk-off tone across both stocks and bonds into the weekend. This morning, markets are walking back a portion of Friday’s losses ahead of the […]